Year end Trade Inflation peak / Long YTD losers Short Winners
- USD has probably peaked for 2022 post US CPI important release.
- Into year end Trade
- Contrarian Play is to Buy Losers (Coppers, NDX, US Equities, Gold), Sell Inflation winners (WTI, USD, Financial sector, Energy Equities).
- In Commodities I chose WTI as a good proxy
Technicals
Long term Trend is negative on crude since the top in June 2022, we broke decisively on 50-week MA and trading under
Systematic / CTA Positioning is still Long.
Into year end with only 5 weeks left, it's highly likely that the Trend Trade will be unwound, based on very large Standard deviations moves that happened yesterday in macro Space (US10Y, USD, Crude, Equities)
- Into year end Trade
- Contrarian Play is to Buy Losers (Coppers, NDX, US Equities, Gold), Sell Inflation winners (WTI, USD, Financial sector, Energy Equities).
- In Commodities I chose WTI as a good proxy
Technicals
Long term Trend is negative on crude since the top in June 2022, we broke decisively on 50-week MA and trading under
Systematic / CTA Positioning is still Long.
Into year end with only 5 weeks left, it's highly likely that the Trend Trade will be unwound, based on very large Standard deviations moves that happened yesterday in macro Space (US10Y, USD, Crude, Equities)
Trade active:
Entry 88.6 trading now 84.6 It's profitable already
Timing and target
==> Target 80 as a typical round number should be used as a pause in the downward move by the end of November or early December (before FOMC meeting ideally)
Medium term, has a potential to ultimately reach $60 by February 2023.
Timing and target
==> Target 80 as a typical round number should be used as a pause in the downward move by the end of November or early December (before FOMC meeting ideally)
Medium term, has a potential to ultimately reach $60 by February 2023.
Trade closed: target reached:
Target reached on short Crude, Take your profit. Expiration Monday on Crude Dec22
