Well well well, in the last 6 weeks we have seen the break down of this wedge and a push towards the initial target, which was met by a vicious suppression of volatility into the US Election. Now the second target has been labeled and mapped out. I have labeled those zones as key pivots should we see Volatility explode over the next 6 weeks into the Presidential Inauguration, however the timeline will be messy with the continued effort of CB's and the Fed to burn all the Bears and further prevent anyone from cashing in on a second crash this year. The likelihood of them being able to continue this? Very low, however no one can say what they won't attempt to do to push up price even higher and killing volatility. As traders, all we can do is watch what price and the numbers tell us, and they tell us the concentrated effort to hold up the economy is running out of fuel. The chickens will come home to roost soon, nor the Fed or all the Governments in the world will be able to stop this. Pay key attention to DXY and ES1! over the coming days as I expect to see a Dollar push to margin call traders in ES1!. and do remember VVIX is the head of the holy trinity of UVXY, VIX, and VXX. VIX is the son of VVIX and will follow the trend he sets. VXX and UVXY get their orders from VVIX and they will do his bidding in due time. Key to remember is that so many factors play into the rise and fall of volatility and that many of our trends and indicators do not account for all of these things simultaneously and leave us early or late on trades with volatility (which im sure you know kills your cash), so please be vigilant and trade smartly, not emotianally. best of luck.
Comment:
still above the 18 month trend line...expect a further fall close to 100 or even 99 before take off. The RSI trendline is building inside the downward channel. Best of luck
Comment:
Consolidation the past week for the VVIX as volatility has continued to get smashed in this latest melt up. The Keys here? US10Y and DXY. As Yields fall, the dollar will rise, and with this will bring the VVIX up as well. Interesting to note the 18 month trend line for the VVIX has continued to hold, we should revisit the lower yellow line before a spike. Remember to always use your brain not your heart to trade. Emotions kill traders and their bank accounts. Cheers.