New all-time highs in the market combined with a creeping VIX are cause for some alarm. Inflation hedges/bets seems to be the talk of late with inflation on the rise.. and this is not unwise considering that money supply is off the chart and velocity is sure to pick up... although velocity is not a necessary component of inflation. Remember that the market is forward looking and when something becomes obvious to you, you are are usually late to that fact. I believe volatility is bottoming in this range and is very likely to start the B wave of a larger wedge. I had expected this to begin sooner. If this is indeed a new, larger wedge, then perhaps it's even bigger than I anticipated. I also believe the market is quite a ways off from any major crash like we had in March of 2020...perhaps years out. But that does not mean we will not have sharp drops with periods of volatility.. I tend to think we are nearing that now. Be on the lookout for market noise and flush-outs. There are likely to be some decent buying opportunities made available in many stocks soon. Hold fast.
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Compare the ellipses on this daily chart.
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GSG, commodity index is offering a clue here
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Russell 2000 (RUT, IWM) chart using a custom indicator I scripted. This market has not topped.
Red boxes = tops
yellow arrow = possible minor correction
Red boxes = tops
yellow arrow = possible minor correction
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when I say, "this market has not topped" I am referring to a major top... but I do tend to think we're near a correction similar to Aug. 2019.. maybe very sharp drop. Who can say?
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This is working out well so far. Let's see if this is the breakout point.. or if the vix cools off again into creep mode.
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NOTICE CYAN support zone. It touched in June of this year and has been support since the first wedge beginning 2018.. Very important.. it can scoot sideways or be the launchpad here.
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also, note this wedge within the larger wedge. When does it let loose?
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This is USOIL. I could see a sharp drop to 55-58 zone. That could take markets down too
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Slow going.. spx/vix ratio
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I like to study VIX MOMENTUM. Momentum coils up and springs to life
It looks nearly on edge here
It looks nearly on edge here