Levels I am Observing:
Green horizontal = weekly lvl
Pink = yr open
Light Blue = last month open
Blue = Range lvl high/low
Black = local swing high/low
Red = daily / 4 hr SR flip
Flow I am observing (via unusual whales)
VIX & VXX =
most active chains & highest OI - some 4.20.22 otm $30c-$40 & 5.18.22 $75c high OI, recent activity on 4.20.22 $50c & 60c (BULLISH for VIX), highest OI chains 7/10 are BEARISH
biggest option trades = some $1m+ Bullish prints on 4.1.22 but pretty mixed
VXX (Currently @$25)
most active chains & highest OI - 4.8.22 $60c & $83c (Bullish for VIX) ; highest OI chains 9/10 are BEARISH
Biggest options trades 4.1 = some mixed flow but skewed bullish with some significant floor prints $1m+
Dark Pool Prints - there was a lot of volume 3.8 and 3.9 in the $27-$28 range... fishy what happened then on 3.15... but as of late there has not been significant dark pool volume
Price action
So far we have seen significant movement and violent trend changes...
Jan finished the month up 40% and had a $22.60 range
Feb finished the month up over 29% and had a $17.79 range
March finished the month down almost 30% and had a $17.84 range
Jan bounced off yearly open, range high set at $38.94
Feb higher low put in at $20 area, lower high put in at $32.50, mid march trend change
End of March, broke Feb lower high, currently down trending / consolidating below 13ema on daily ... Potential bear flag or h break down forming
We are in a downtrend, yet there is some interesting flow here bullish short term with some very OTM risk on April dated exp. Historically, April is good for equities...
I am anticipating more downside = Look for entries to short, short weakness or breakdown
on price break down, target 1 yr open $17, target 2 Jan range low $16.34 ;
if consolidation, there is good R/R to upside if we reclaim $21.30 (or find support QUICKLY off $17.60 or $16.34) I may look to get long to the local swing high at $23.04 and $24.57
Invalidation levels on VIX, last range low was around $29 and swing high at $33, BULLISH PA at $25.50 would worry me depending on how $23.04 (2021 open) and $24.57 (Feb open) react if tested soon.
Green horizontal = weekly lvl
Pink = yr open
Light Blue = last month open
Blue = Range lvl high/low
Black = local swing high/low
Red = daily / 4 hr SR flip
Flow I am observing (via unusual whales)
VIX & VXX =
most active chains & highest OI - some 4.20.22 otm $30c-$40 & 5.18.22 $75c high OI, recent activity on 4.20.22 $50c & 60c (BULLISH for VIX), highest OI chains 7/10 are BEARISH
biggest option trades = some $1m+ Bullish prints on 4.1.22 but pretty mixed
VXX (Currently @$25)
most active chains & highest OI - 4.8.22 $60c & $83c (Bullish for VIX) ; highest OI chains 9/10 are BEARISH
Biggest options trades 4.1 = some mixed flow but skewed bullish with some significant floor prints $1m+
Dark Pool Prints - there was a lot of volume 3.8 and 3.9 in the $27-$28 range... fishy what happened then on 3.15... but as of late there has not been significant dark pool volume
Price action
So far we have seen significant movement and violent trend changes...
Jan finished the month up 40% and had a $22.60 range
Feb finished the month up over 29% and had a $17.79 range
March finished the month down almost 30% and had a $17.84 range
Jan bounced off yearly open, range high set at $38.94
Feb higher low put in at $20 area, lower high put in at $32.50, mid march trend change
End of March, broke Feb lower high, currently down trending / consolidating below 13ema on daily ... Potential bear flag or h break down forming
We are in a downtrend, yet there is some interesting flow here bullish short term with some very OTM risk on April dated exp. Historically, April is good for equities...
I am anticipating more downside = Look for entries to short, short weakness or breakdown
on price break down, target 1 yr open $17, target 2 Jan range low $16.34 ;
if consolidation, there is good R/R to upside if we reclaim $21.30 (or find support QUICKLY off $17.60 or $16.34) I may look to get long to the local swing high at $23.04 and $24.57
Invalidation levels on VIX, last range low was around $29 and swing high at $33, BULLISH PA at $25.50 would worry me depending on how $23.04 (2021 open) and $24.57 (Feb open) react if tested soon.