Crude oil is heavily reliant on the laws of supply and demand... IEA reported that the production cuts that OPEC plan on undertaking will not be enough to bring supply to meet demand in Q1 of next year... The amount of crude oil available will surpass the amount of crude oil demanded... Markets should begin to discount this very soon... Coupled with this the SP500 is beginning to make one last push before a likely drop... The tariff decision come sunday is likely to disappoint and cause these risk assets to drop in tandem... Through elliot wave we can see an impulsive drop from 63.60 in October (wave A)and a corrective, sloppy move up to current prices (wave B). This implies another impulsive move (wave C) that is likely equal to wave A.. My target is $50 per barrel and $63.60 is my stop loss...
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Comment:
Phase one of the trade deal has been met... I'm expecting investors to have the reaction of "thats it?", and they will begin to realize the overall trade agreement will be much more drawn out and prices should correct...