Continuation of bull trend into 2018 w/ possible retrace in Dec
1. We believe that the fundamental factors which led us to conclude crude was entering a bullish trend in July 2017 remain in place.
2. The cooperation in OPEC and NOPEC and SA IPO are still driving the bull trend. The weakness in the financing support for Shale also supports the bull trend.
3. Recent Improvements in Shale production efficiency will likely drive a strong December retrace according to the RSI and Stoch RSI leading indicators.
4. While the possibility of a trend reversal overhangs the bullish trend, we believe the bullish trend will hold into Q1 or Q2 of 2017 driven by the SA IPO.
5. We still expect to see USD60 crude in Q1 2018 but do not believe that material upside from 60 is likely. We believe 60 is a good balance between OPEC, NOPEC and SHALE.
6. We think the recent parabolic overshoot of the bull trend is an anomaly due to political events in SA and do not think this necessarily indicates an acceleration in the bull trend.
2. The cooperation in OPEC and NOPEC and SA IPO are still driving the bull trend. The weakness in the financing support for Shale also supports the bull trend.
3. Recent Improvements in Shale production efficiency will likely drive a strong December retrace according to the RSI and Stoch RSI leading indicators.
4. While the possibility of a trend reversal overhangs the bullish trend, we believe the bullish trend will hold into Q1 or Q2 of 2017 driven by the SA IPO.
5. We still expect to see USD60 crude in Q1 2018 but do not believe that material upside from 60 is likely. We believe 60 is a good balance between OPEC, NOPEC and SHALE.
6. We think the recent parabolic overshoot of the bull trend is an anomaly due to political events in SA and do not think this necessarily indicates an acceleration in the bull trend.