ReneDR

ReneDR

1. We expected a short term retrace but it seems the shale producers and the OPEC have finally decided not to work at cross purposes. SA focusing on sales outside of the US is definitely playing a big part allowing shale to grow volumes while maintaining prices without creating a glut in US market. 2. Crude seems to have limited itself to the upper half of the...

ReneDR

1. Crude still looks like it is in it's bullish range which we expect will continue for the near to medium future. 2. The fundamentals are still bullish with the increased regional political risk and the tepid response in the shale sector. 3. But the leading indicators of the RSI14 and the Stoch RSI strongly indicate a potential short term pullback to 59...

ReneDR

1. We believe that the fundamental factors which led us to conclude crude was entering a bullish trend in July 2017 remain in place. 2. The cooperation in OPEC and NOPEC and SA IPO are still driving the bull trend. The weakness in the financing support for Shale also supports the bull trend. 3. Recent Improvements in Shale production efficiency will likely...

ReneDR

1. Bearish Stochastic RSI and RSI triggers have been hit signalling a 2-4 week bearish run. 2. Crude is still range bound in a bullish trading range with an expected range of 48 to 56 3. Still expect Crude to be in the $60 range by early next year. Fundamentals still driving the bullish trading range.

ReneDR

1. Crude has not yet confidently exited the $3 trading range set in August. Short term Crude expected to reverse and remain in the channel. 2. If the channel is broken, we may see $54-56 in Oct otherwise it is back to $47-48 3. A major announcement from Opec or Saudis can break the channel.

ReneDR Updated 

1. Key indicator to watch is whether Crude will be below or above 46.50 to 47 over the next 3 days. If it remains above then expect continuation of bullish channel. Else expect bearish drop to 42 by EOM. 2. Fundamentals are still bullish sideways: SA IPO, Venezuela, Horizontal drilling issues (breakeven costs, lack of financing, and production drops), weekly...

ReneDR

1. Short term trading will be within the bull channel 2. Reversals expected weekly aligned with API/EIA and Baker HUghes Draw reports 3. Unexpected bullish events can cause the channel to move upwards. 4. Unexpected bearish events can cause a retrace.

ReneDR

Crude will challenge the upper resistance on the bull channel in next 1 to 3 days. Back to Bearish position next week.

ReneDR

1. Crude Fundamentals generally positive: lower inventories, no more planned Strategic Petroleum Reserve draws for 2017, growing consumption, OPEC/NOPEC limiting output, Shale funding drying up, Rig counts tapering, Saudi IPO, Venezuela sanctions, etc. 2. Crude may be entering medium term positive sentiment similar to Nov 2016 after Opec meeting. 3. Potential...

ReneDR

Oil will move sideways on a bullish trend. 1. SA needs oil at around US60 next year for IPO. 2. Wall street funding for Shale drying up. Not much new money for new shale wells is available. Wall street needs oil to go up. Shale producers need oil to go up. 3. Oil majors can sit on the shale wells that they own. Smaller players are only leasing wells so they are...

ReneDR

USOIL Has been Retracing the 0.786 FIB for past two bearish 6 week cycles Predicting 49 to 50 by Mid July. This will persist as long as Shale indicators remain bearish (rig counts show consistent growth. If rig counts falter, then we will probably see the $60 oil that SA is targeting for their IPO next year. If rig counts continue to grow then qw are likely to...

ReneDR

Even if rig counts go up at the end of the week, bull will probably hold as long as the gain is not accelerating. The interaction between Opec and Shale producers is classic input for oscillation. Medium term trend will still be bearish unless rig counts start to drop or hold steady.

ReneDR

Momentum indicators and Stoch RSI indicates a strong reversal in USOIL. Expect to see a retrace to 0.5F Expect USOIL to maintain the bearish trend for rest of year until the US drillers begin to feel the pain below a $40 Oil price.

ReneDR

USOIL is range bound since Nov 2016. So investor sentiment regularly flips within the range.