USDZAR Long trading opportunity(swing-trading) 3
I expect a swing of about 100cents-150cents all the way up to R18.25+- per dollar, expecting the ZAR to weaken in the short term within a week to a few weeks (less than a month or about a month) to 18.25+-.
the average life span of coal stations in South Africa is around 47 years, if maintained. Currently, the average age of coal plants, the older ones (new ones also seem to be giving problems) is 42 years, without proper maintenance, this country is facing a potential power grid collapse, it has already experienced one recently, the president has asked for a 35-38$ billion loan from the USA, Eskom has reached out to independent power producers to provide 1000megawatt or more, official statements indicating that "lack of skills or experience" being one of the factors, outsourcing happening as we speak now...
I am saying we see 18 for the USDZAR soon, but these things can "lag" as in only showing in the next relevant economic statement release, but sure, 18 is a almost certainty for me. I would wait for a nice short-term bottom to enter though, maybe 17.00-17.50 (or lower depending on your preference), USA interest rates also playing big role, but we all know that is sort of going up.
A quick handling of the Eskom issue can cause this to not be viable anymore, but that is unlikely.
I believe Eskom affects the strength of the ZAR against the US dollar around 30%+-, demotivating lenders etc. of putting money in the ZAR and causing economic statement releases to come out more negative (negatively affecting economic growth).
I am not risking any money, also this is not a jump in now trade, this is literally just an idea for a good entry setup potentially coming up.
the average life span of coal stations in South Africa is around 47 years, if maintained. Currently, the average age of coal plants, the older ones (new ones also seem to be giving problems) is 42 years, without proper maintenance, this country is facing a potential power grid collapse, it has already experienced one recently, the president has asked for a 35-38$ billion loan from the USA, Eskom has reached out to independent power producers to provide 1000megawatt or more, official statements indicating that "lack of skills or experience" being one of the factors, outsourcing happening as we speak now...
I am saying we see 18 for the USDZAR soon, but these things can "lag" as in only showing in the next relevant economic statement release, but sure, 18 is a almost certainty for me. I would wait for a nice short-term bottom to enter though, maybe 17.00-17.50 (or lower depending on your preference), USA interest rates also playing big role, but we all know that is sort of going up.
A quick handling of the Eskom issue can cause this to not be viable anymore, but that is unlikely.
I believe Eskom affects the strength of the ZAR against the US dollar around 30%+-, demotivating lenders etc. of putting money in the ZAR and causing economic statement releases to come out more negative (negatively affecting economic growth).
I am not risking any money, also this is not a jump in now trade, this is literally just an idea for a good entry setup potentially coming up.
Trade active:
opened up a LONG position with the size of $15 thousand, this is a long-term position, zero leverage, 1:1 leverage, and something I plan to hold for around a year max.
The profit target is 18.5-19.00 ZAR to one dollar, entry is 17.18
stop loss is 17.00-17.05+- ZAR to one Dollar (USDZAR)
The profit target is 18.5-19.00 ZAR to one dollar, entry is 17.18
stop loss is 17.00-17.05+- ZAR to one Dollar (USDZAR)
Trade closed: stop reached:
dynamic stop loss hit at 17.10, loss is R1600