Markets seem to be betting on a Fed pivot which has seen a pullback in the DXY and the US 10-year yield but only time will tell if the DXY has truly topped out. For now, the pullback of the greenback presents an opportunity for the ZAR to stage a minor recovery.
I'm expecting the ZAR to pull the pair lower into the range between the top of the third impulse wave around 17.25, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate, and the critical level of 16.80. The 50-day MA rate at 17.14 also sits satisfying in this range and will deem as a significant support level.
Technically there is a strong bearish divergence on the RSI which is also rand positive.
In terms of year-end predictions, I expect the pair to close the year in the range between 16.50 and 16.80.
I'm expecting the ZAR to pull the pair lower into the range between the top of the third impulse wave around 17.25, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate, and the critical level of 16.80. The 50-day MA rate at 17.14 also sits satisfying in this range and will deem as a significant support level.
Technically there is a strong bearish divergence on the RSI which is also rand positive.
In terms of year-end predictions, I expect the pair to close the year in the range between 16.50 and 16.80.
