USDJPY Strong Negative Divergence Suggests Trend Change Soon
Powerful negative divergence on the weekly time frame ( a very reliable time frame in terms of divergences)
suggest that the USDJPY will likely change its multi-week trend and likely turn down or move sideways.
There is other confluence that would support this hypothesis, and a caveat here, though I am not an 'Elliottician'
( Elliott wavers) I use the patterns because they can be reliable if identified as a whole and not "fractalized counting"
with that in mind I see a possible ABCXABC pattern for most assets including the leaders SPX and Nasdaq.
This pattern can not be considered as reliable as weekly negative divergence because there is too much bias
in Elliott wave analysis (the reason why I don't use it) but as I have mentioned above, if we can immediately see the
pattern with out having to overanalyze and add thousands of counts and fractals, then and only then can we
create a hypothesis based upon said pattern. To add to this sell volume on the last drop for the general markets has decreased by comparison
to early spring sell offs. If this is the case and the USDJPY is the leader down (two of the largest economies USA and Japan
would make good leaders in a recovery rally) then we can safely assume that other pairs such as the AUSUSD and the NZDUSD will follow and move up.
The signal is NOT in yet. Therefore we must wait patiently before moving to sell the USD. Keep an eye on the
oscillators on the weekly timeframe and the USDJPY will tell us when to sell it.
This is good news to me because I was getting tired after the last drop the markets have only meandered and have
done nothing except make me lose about .7%. Not a bad loss at all but very annoying.
suggest that the USDJPY will likely change its multi-week trend and likely turn down or move sideways.
There is other confluence that would support this hypothesis, and a caveat here, though I am not an 'Elliottician'
( Elliott wavers) I use the patterns because they can be reliable if identified as a whole and not "fractalized counting"
with that in mind I see a possible ABCXABC pattern for most assets including the leaders SPX and Nasdaq.
This pattern can not be considered as reliable as weekly negative divergence because there is too much bias
in Elliott wave analysis (the reason why I don't use it) but as I have mentioned above, if we can immediately see the
pattern with out having to overanalyze and add thousands of counts and fractals, then and only then can we
create a hypothesis based upon said pattern. To add to this sell volume on the last drop for the general markets has decreased by comparison
to early spring sell offs. If this is the case and the USDJPY is the leader down (two of the largest economies USA and Japan
would make good leaders in a recovery rally) then we can safely assume that other pairs such as the AUSUSD and the NZDUSD will follow and move up.
The signal is NOT in yet. Therefore we must wait patiently before moving to sell the USD. Keep an eye on the
oscillators on the weekly timeframe and the USDJPY will tell us when to sell it.
This is good news to me because I was getting tired after the last drop the markets have only meandered and have
done nothing except make me lose about .7%. Not a bad loss at all but very annoying.
Comment:
Likely one last higher high before as long term sell.
