USDJPY - Is This Just A Healthy Pullback?
Analysis:
Recently price has just been heading higher and higher on this pair, and we've been looking to catch this move for a while now but we needed to stay patient and wait for a pullback and that's exactly what we might have now. Price has pulled back to a key level of prior resistance and as we know, resistance often becomes support, so this is starting to look like a potential place to enter long. We're also still in an upwards trend as the most recent higher low hasn't been broken so this move to the downside is just a healthy pullback rather then a break of structure. At our area of previous resistance now turned support we also have the 61.8% fib retracement level which is often classed as the strongest fib retracement level so we'd expect that buyers would be sat at this area wanting to hold price and push it higher. On top of that we also have an upwards trendline touch, which acts as dynamic support, so we'd expect buyers to also be sat at this area wanting to hold price and push it higher. All of these technical confluences line up together and signal that this area could hold and provide bullish momentum so we like the look of this. We don't just have the technicals on our side but we also have the fundamentals too. Fundamentally the USD is the strongest major currency compared to the JPY which is the weakest major currency, so this massively goes in our favour. As of the most recent report for institutional positioning we saw the USD stay pretty bullish whereas for the JPY we saw an increase in long positions but we also saw an almost 2.5 times bigger increase in short positions compared to long positions opened. This signals that there is still more possible bearishness to come for the JPY, making it favourable to short rather then going long. With all of the technicals and fundamentals lined up together we have a very strong bias to the long side of USDJPY.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you!
Stay Safe - The JPI Team
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Recently price has just been heading higher and higher on this pair, and we've been looking to catch this move for a while now but we needed to stay patient and wait for a pullback and that's exactly what we might have now. Price has pulled back to a key level of prior resistance and as we know, resistance often becomes support, so this is starting to look like a potential place to enter long. We're also still in an upwards trend as the most recent higher low hasn't been broken so this move to the downside is just a healthy pullback rather then a break of structure. At our area of previous resistance now turned support we also have the 61.8% fib retracement level which is often classed as the strongest fib retracement level so we'd expect that buyers would be sat at this area wanting to hold price and push it higher. On top of that we also have an upwards trendline touch, which acts as dynamic support, so we'd expect buyers to also be sat at this area wanting to hold price and push it higher. All of these technical confluences line up together and signal that this area could hold and provide bullish momentum so we like the look of this. We don't just have the technicals on our side but we also have the fundamentals too. Fundamentally the USD is the strongest major currency compared to the JPY which is the weakest major currency, so this massively goes in our favour. As of the most recent report for institutional positioning we saw the USD stay pretty bullish whereas for the JPY we saw an increase in long positions but we also saw an almost 2.5 times bigger increase in short positions compared to long positions opened. This signals that there is still more possible bearishness to come for the JPY, making it favourable to short rather then going long. With all of the technicals and fundamentals lined up together we have a very strong bias to the long side of USDJPY.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you!
Stay Safe - The JPI Team
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Trade active:
With our entry requirements met and our order being filled, we're now long on USDJPY looking for price to continue its push to the upside after this pullback that we've seen.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Trade Closed
(-1R) Lost
After Trade Comments:
Some news came out today for the USD which ended up being worse then expected so this didn't help our trade and this negative catalyst ultimately pushed price down until we were stopped out. This trade was exactly to our trading plan so it was valid, however sometimes news just doesn't go in your favour and that's what we saw today. We did everything correctly in accordance to our plan so there isn't anything to improve on, we've just got to move on and look for the next setup to allow our edge to play out.
Stay Safe - The JPI Team
(-1R) Lost
After Trade Comments:
Some news came out today for the USD which ended up being worse then expected so this didn't help our trade and this negative catalyst ultimately pushed price down until we were stopped out. This trade was exactly to our trading plan so it was valid, however sometimes news just doesn't go in your favour and that's what we saw today. We did everything correctly in accordance to our plan so there isn't anything to improve on, we've just got to move on and look for the next setup to allow our edge to play out.
Stay Safe - The JPI Team