230207 - USD/JPY – Update and Ongoing Analysis
<b>RECAP</b>
<list>
<*> Commentary in the 2 previous posts still valid.
<*> Previously, I had written that I would sell at 130, SL: 131.00, TP: 128. RR: 2. This turned into a successful trade for me, although I had to close the position manually, as the 128.00 was never triggered, #DXY was rising sharply, which made me believe the 128.00 support would not be breached.
<*> From a technical POV, ‘Long term trend’ down remains intact.
<*> Although, today we learn that the market swing down starting 22 October 2022, was the result of the Bank of Japan intervening. JPY was becoming undervalued and BoJ bought $45Billion Yen for USD, re-appreciating JPY. This alone could throw all technicals out of the window because the downtrend was a result of an intervention. Watch this space.
</list>
<b>THE CHART</b>
<list>
<*> 128.00 is now a very established support zone.
<*> Followed by the violent counter trend PA back to the opposite end of the current channel.
<*> However, no major Support and Resistance have been breached and we must believe in the method and say, 132.00 is the Role Reversal Level (RRL) (Breakout (below 132.00) Retest when previous support becomes the new resistance.
</list>
<b>CONCLUSIONS</b>
<list>
<*> I remain short USD/JPY, and managed to time a beautiful entry yesterday evening at 132.75, with a super-tight stop.
<*> IMO 133.00 is the last resistance, but watch for false breaks.
<*> There may be a false break above 133.00, but for now attacking USD/JPY short, has run it course for now.
</list>
<b>RECAP</b>
<list>
<*> Commentary in the 2 previous posts still valid.
<*> Previously, I had written that I would sell at 130, SL: 131.00, TP: 128. RR: 2. This turned into a successful trade for me, although I had to close the position manually, as the 128.00 was never triggered, #DXY was rising sharply, which made me believe the 128.00 support would not be breached.
<*> From a technical POV, ‘Long term trend’ down remains intact.
<*> Although, today we learn that the market swing down starting 22 October 2022, was the result of the Bank of Japan intervening. JPY was becoming undervalued and BoJ bought $45Billion Yen for USD, re-appreciating JPY. This alone could throw all technicals out of the window because the downtrend was a result of an intervention. Watch this space.
</list>
<b>THE CHART</b>
<list>
<*> 128.00 is now a very established support zone.
<*> Followed by the violent counter trend PA back to the opposite end of the current channel.
<*> However, no major Support and Resistance have been breached and we must believe in the method and say, 132.00 is the Role Reversal Level (RRL) (Breakout (below 132.00) Retest when previous support becomes the new resistance.
</list>
<b>CONCLUSIONS</b>
<list>
<*> I remain short USD/JPY, and managed to time a beautiful entry yesterday evening at 132.75, with a super-tight stop.
<*> IMO 133.00 is the last resistance, but watch for false breaks.
<*> There may be a false break above 133.00, but for now attacking USD/JPY short, has run it course for now.
</list>