On the 3rd of August 1998 USDJPY
hit 147.53. In February 2012,14 years later the price hit 76. I remember trading back in January 2010 when the price hit 90 and I was piling on USD LONG trades in the absolute belief that the price had bottomed and SURELY
we can't go any lower. I had the same belief when the price hit 80. I remember back in Jan 2012 reading an article online and the author gave his 3 best trading tips for that year and they were BUY USD/JPY
, BUY USD/JPY
and BUY USD/JPY
. All traders trading today and looking at the price of USD/JPY
back in 2012 will all wistfully been thinking "why did I close out that LONG trade I had going on USDJPY?". We always do though. Its part of the psychology of trading. We keep losing positions in the hope they will recover and close winning positions scared of the price reversing.
SO looking back at USD/JPY
as the price sits at 107 where next?
As you can see the price is funnelling into a rather pleasing triangle (flag/ pennant
shape). Its likely to keep doing so for the next few months at least. We are effectively trading in quite a narrow 300 or 400 pip range. Which side of the flag we break out of is anyone's guess but I suspect once its broken out then the price will continue in that direction. When D.J. Trump took office on 12 January 2017 the price of USDJPY
was 117 and if we have another 4 years of the narcissist we can expect the price to break out to the south. Should we see Joe Biden
win the White House (unlikely) we are more likely to see the USD break north out of this flag and move higher.
Its all to play for.