USDCHF multiple failures on a key trend-line. Bearish long-term.

The USDCHF pair has been under the selling pressure of a multi-year Lower Highs trend-line since the April 22 2019 1W candle. Since the market bottom of the January 04 2021 1W candle, the pair has came close to that trend-line first on March 29 and then more recently from September 27 until the current week.

As you see all those attempts to break and close a weekly candle above that multi-year bearish trend-line have failed. Even though we got breaks on Sep 27 Nov 22 and the current week, they all quickly reversed, thus failing the objective of closing a week above it and reverse this multi-year bearish sentiment. Multiple failures on such long-term time-frames usually create a very strong accumulation of sellers. With the 1W RSI on a bearish trend since Sep 13, and with the price having broken below the Higher Lows trend-line of the January 04 2021 bottom and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), I am expecting a strong dive towards the May 2021 Support Zone of 0.89800 - 0.89250. A 1W closing below 0.89800 should complete the reversal towards the 0.87600 market bottom.

Notice that since March 2020, the multi-year Lower Highs trend-line is trading almost along the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), adding more to the selling pressure. Also notice how the Fibonacci retracement levels also play a key role on the rejections. The March 29 2021 1W candle got rejected near the 0.5 Fib and the Sep 27 and Nov 22 candles got rejected on the 0.382 Fib. Currently the price is supported since the August 16 2021 candle on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.




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