USDCAD Hit the 1D MA200 after 2 months. What's next?

The USDCAD pair hit today the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 29. This comes after the November 01 top rejection marginally above Resistance 1 (1.38645) got accelerated by breaking below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). With the 1D RSI close to the 30.00 oversold barrier, we see an uncanny resemblance with the March 10 - April 03 sequence.

It was on exactly the same 1D RSI level when that fractal delivered a short-term rebound that got rejected on the 1D MA50 and then declined to the top of the Symmetrical Support Zone. As a result we expect today or on Monday a similar dead-cat-bounce and late next week a rejection to resume the downtrend. Our medium-term target is 1.3400 (a little over Support 1).

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