Sell USDCAD - Anticipating Weak US data and Hawkish CAD comment
USD has been increasing consistently over the Asian session. It's a aftermath effect as market digest more of Yellen's yesterday speech, plus there are some more US data coming up and is on average expected to be good.
My statistical analysis shows that the data may not be as good as expected. Furthermore I think Governor Poloz's speech later in the day is a more important driver for the pair and my base expectation is it is going to be a hawkish comment and that may send CAD higher.
Sentiment wise, retails are Long USD and Short CAD. Most severely Short CAD is USDCAD and most severely Long USD is GBPUSD.
I would fade USD strength and bet on CAD strength reversal. I'm still looking for an entry, either via price action or I will enter closer to the data release if the pair pull closer to 1.24 level. My TP is after Poloz's speech, of course it depends on how hawkish he is going to be but I can use price action to take off then, interest level are 1.235 or 1.23.
My statistical analysis shows that the data may not be as good as expected. Furthermore I think Governor Poloz's speech later in the day is a more important driver for the pair and my base expectation is it is going to be a hawkish comment and that may send CAD higher.
Sentiment wise, retails are Long USD and Short CAD. Most severely Short CAD is USDCAD and most severely Long USD is GBPUSD.
I would fade USD strength and bet on CAD strength reversal. I'm still looking for an entry, either via price action or I will enter closer to the data release if the pair pull closer to 1.24 level. My TP is after Poloz's speech, of course it depends on how hawkish he is going to be but I can use price action to take off then, interest level are 1.235 or 1.23.