vietbach1990

vietbach1990

I am a huge fan of Peter Brandt. In fact my trading has profoundly changed since I learnt about him. He is a pure technical trader who use classical charting pattern to identify trade opportunities then proceed to apply it with rigorous risk management. He trades only in the long term timeframe i.e. Weekly or even Monthly. His method works for 40 years and I...

vietbach1990 Updated 

Today is generally a quite day. In term of price action thus far USD is most bearish vs AUD most bullish. The tier 1 event today however is with GBP. I do not think it is going to have huge impact but nevertheless the GBPCHF is very Net Long and looks like the market in general is expecting supportive GBP data. My analysis shows otherwise and I'd like to be there...

vietbach1990

This is probably will be my 2nd trade of the day. I don't intend to put it on yet since I may give market too much room to go against me. The thesis is again based on my expectation that CAD data is bad vs the good expectation. It is however not a very significant data and it's isolated. If market has little reaction I'm not interested in holding it for...

vietbach1990

The best trade today for me maybe this CAD play. I'd be quite early to put this on but I'd not be around to monitor it properly otherwise. I expect CAD's Data to beat but the market is generally short CAD. Most concentrated in AUDCAD and CADJPY. So I'd Long CADJPY now and Short AUDCAD..each with 1/2R. I will be out if I'm wrong on the data though. Also may take...

vietbach1990 Updated 

Today GBP data is not significant. Nevertheless the GBPNZD has been Net Shorted since Asian session and now the price action break finally comes. I also expect the data to be bad so there is good chance the pair continue to drift downward. I won't be taking full risk here given I've already have the USDCHF drift one, plus I want some room to play CAD news later...

vietbach1990

I think NFP is going to be exceptionally volatile given divergence in expectation for Avg Earning (I expect a Miss) vs the Job Data (I expect a Beat). Market however is relatively Net Long in USDCHF and the intial price action at UK opening has been supportive. I'll enter Long here and hope the pair drifts further upward, I'll take it off near NFP.

vietbach1990 Updated 

Today is relatively a non-event day for EUR and GBP so learning from my failed AUDNZD Short yesterday I'll try betting with the momentum. The basic thesis is if there is no fundamental event that alter the market perception of the pair, retail sentiment will be able to influence it and force the pair to drift. The reason I choose EURJPY and GBPJPY is because they...

vietbach1990

USD Analysis: - Positioning: Net Long, most in USDCHF, no pair is Net Short - Price action: Net Short at this point thus there is a disagreement between the Retail's position and the market's sentiment. USDCHF in particular is down. - Fundamental: I think the ADP data will be a Miss while ISM will be a Beat thus Neutralize each other Conclusion: ADP data miss...

vietbach1990 Updated 

I've realized that I've making too many trades lately and with increasing complication in my analysis. This trade is my attempt to go back to the core of being a contrarian, trying to find the most "pain" in the market and benefit from it. My game plan is now: first looking at retail's positioning that is the most extreme for the currency pair in focus,...

vietbach1990

This is a small experiment trade where I isolated the Retail Positioning factor: Retail is extremely net Long AUDNZD and today is a non-event day for this pair so I'd like to bet against this. This is an experiment trade that I put on with 1/5 the usual risk.

vietbach1990 Updated 

I re-assess the EUR pairs heading into the Spain data release by benchmarking what the Retail Sentiment was relative to what the market was expecting and my conclusion is EURNZD is the one that is most overextended relative to the fundamental of the pair. It has been the best performer during Asia session and ever extend gain after bad data during UK session and I...

vietbach1990 Updated 

This is related to my EUR assessment earlier. Given the data was worse than expected, I think the EURUSD's rebound is over and I do expect people to be more confident adding to their Short now. The pair should go lower until the next risk event - Powell's speech.

vietbach1990 Updated 

This is not a significant event to trade on. Nevertheless, I would still put it on as a practice for my analysis. * Fundamental: The Spain data is expected to be Good, I expected it to be even better. * Positioning/Supply-Demand: EUR is Net Short, most heavily in EURNZD vs Net Long in EURGBP * Sentiment/Price Action: EUR is Net Long, most is EURNZD vs least is...

vietbach1990 Updated 

This is my first attempt to simultaneously trade "into" and "out of" data release. The thesis is on ISM PMI release later, which the USD expected to do badly. My game plan is I'd like to trade with the data expectation for now despite my calculated odd that the data will be good. Meaning I'll short USD and revert my position closer right before the data release....

vietbach1990 Updated 

Today is going to be a very slow day with little event to trade on. The most important news today is the UK and US' PMI number. Even though they are expected to be bad, my statistic shows it is a better odd for them to beat expectation. On the other hand, I think EUR will be negative although not by much. The sentiment for EUR, GBP and USD are: - EUR: Net...

vietbach1990

My statistical studies shows that GBP hard data release today is likely to be dissapointed. CAD will also have somewhat dissapointed data in my opinion, however relatively it will have the smallest "dissapoinment gap" amongst the Majors. In addition, today we will have 2 speeches coming out from MPC Member Broadbent and the BOE Governor Carney, both of whom has...

vietbach1990 Updated 

At first I thought Carney was very concerned with inflation and yet it seems he is more concerned with Brexit and given the BOE independence, they can divert from the original inflation target i.e. withstand more inflation or GBP weakened to smooth the Brexit experience. Given his talk, I don't think the PM will reverse her tone.

vietbach1990

USD has been increasing consistently over the Asian session. It's a aftermath effect as market digest more of Yellen's yesterday speech, plus there are some more US data coming up and is on average expected to be good. My statistical analysis shows that the data may not be as good as expected. Furthermore I think Governor Poloz's speech later in the day is a more...