Im looking to short Loonie around 1.32514 with a stop @ 1.33465 and final target of +430 pips @ 1.28215
1. Now if we dive deeper into why I'm leaning towards bearish first lets dive into our fundamentals, like most will know last week the US cut 25 basis points from the dollar for the first time in a decade, fundamentally that weakens the dollar but right off the bat the dollar soared and the reasoning behind that was during the statement Jerome Powell started to speak in some hawkish terms which then confused investors and made uncertainty in the market, but then he next day Trump went after China putting the 10% tariffs on chinas goods which in return starts to worry investors about the dollar so they start moving their money to safe havens like Gold or JPY which is a result of gold going higher and UJ, EJ , GJ all falling.
2. Lets look into Canadas fundamentals, we already know that the DXY is starting to lose some strength and with the trade war tensions going on it will continue to lose strength, this week on Friday August 9th we have Employment change for CAD which is looking to be positive if I had to guess somewhere around the +20.5k or so and we have the Unemployment rate which is also looking to be positive possible around 5.6-5.7% so now that we have our fundamental bias for USDCAD we believe the dollar is getting weaker from trade war tensions and we believe the CAD will get stronger from Employment Change & Unemployment rate this week.
3. So now we dive into the technicals behind our fundamental bias for shorting Loonie on the Daily Tf we have our fibs with the 61.80% at 1.32750 & we are reaching our 25.00% fib channel at 1.32515 overall maintaining downtrend structure, with longterm downtrend since 2016 with a temporary uptrend returning to overall downtrend since December of 2018, we have a major support that through past price has continued to be met at 1.27500 and im looking to take my profit at a keylevel slightly above it at 1.28215 we also could use our -27.00% fib level for a TP1 at 1.29082 and our -61.80 for TP2 at 1.27648 which aligns perfectly around our support but my key level @ 1.28215 should take around 8-14 days to be met then from there I expect some sort of bounce before officially meeting the support of 1.27500.
4. Last thing is also around our 61.80% fib which is the general area of entry there is a lot of distribution building up look at this as a institution sees they are making there own entries by building distribution they push the market up to then build liquidity to push the market lower, therefore why im using around a 95 pip SL because sometimes when it looks to obvious the institutions can push the market up temporarily to fake out sellers stops and fake out buyers to come into the market before the real move, so I like to give my trade room to breathe so that the move can present itself.
As always this is my bias take this as you will use it as confluence and have a Blue trading week!
1. Now if we dive deeper into why I'm leaning towards bearish first lets dive into our fundamentals, like most will know last week the US cut 25 basis points from the dollar for the first time in a decade, fundamentally that weakens the dollar but right off the bat the dollar soared and the reasoning behind that was during the statement Jerome Powell started to speak in some hawkish terms which then confused investors and made uncertainty in the market, but then he next day Trump went after China putting the 10% tariffs on chinas goods which in return starts to worry investors about the dollar so they start moving their money to safe havens like Gold or JPY which is a result of gold going higher and UJ, EJ , GJ all falling.
2. Lets look into Canadas fundamentals, we already know that the DXY is starting to lose some strength and with the trade war tensions going on it will continue to lose strength, this week on Friday August 9th we have Employment change for CAD which is looking to be positive if I had to guess somewhere around the +20.5k or so and we have the Unemployment rate which is also looking to be positive possible around 5.6-5.7% so now that we have our fundamental bias for USDCAD we believe the dollar is getting weaker from trade war tensions and we believe the CAD will get stronger from Employment Change & Unemployment rate this week.
3. So now we dive into the technicals behind our fundamental bias for shorting Loonie on the Daily Tf we have our fibs with the 61.80% at 1.32750 & we are reaching our 25.00% fib channel at 1.32515 overall maintaining downtrend structure, with longterm downtrend since 2016 with a temporary uptrend returning to overall downtrend since December of 2018, we have a major support that through past price has continued to be met at 1.27500 and im looking to take my profit at a keylevel slightly above it at 1.28215 we also could use our -27.00% fib level for a TP1 at 1.29082 and our -61.80 for TP2 at 1.27648 which aligns perfectly around our support but my key level @ 1.28215 should take around 8-14 days to be met then from there I expect some sort of bounce before officially meeting the support of 1.27500.
4. Last thing is also around our 61.80% fib which is the general area of entry there is a lot of distribution building up look at this as a institution sees they are making there own entries by building distribution they push the market up to then build liquidity to push the market lower, therefore why im using around a 95 pip SL because sometimes when it looks to obvious the institutions can push the market up temporarily to fake out sellers stops and fake out buyers to come into the market before the real move, so I like to give my trade room to breathe so that the move can present itself.
As always this is my bias take this as you will use it as confluence and have a Blue trading week!
Comment:
My entry bias as changed slightly looking to enter anywhere between 1.32750 & 1.33250 with the same take profit targets still in mind