RUSSELL 2000 Testing key 2022 Resistance. Rejection or breakout?

Russell 2000 (RUT) finally hit our 2140 Target, which we called for on our last pull-back and buy signal (December 28 2023, see chart below):


Even before that signal, we caught the ideal bottom buy for a full bullish swing:


At the moment the situation is different as the index is on full bullish technicals, having hit the 2140 Resistance which was formed by the March 28 2022 High. Needless to say, breaking above this 2-year Resistance opens the way for a Resistance 2 (2293) test.

We believe the key here lies on the 1W (weekly) closing. As long as Russell fails to close a 1W candle above Resistance 1, we will wait for a buy on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). If it falls and closes even below the 1D MA50, we will add a last buy on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and the top of the Symmetrical Support Zone, where all candles of the Jan - March 2022 Bear Flag closed.

Our expectation is that this uptrend will form a Bull Flag, in similar fashion as the 2021/22 downtrend formed a Bear Flag. If on the other hand the index does close a 1W candle above Resistance 1, we will have a technical bullish break-out and on that occasion, we will buy on the spot. In all cases our medium-term Target will be 2293 (Resistance 2).


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