In other news, Libya’s state oil company NOC declared a shutdown of its biggest oilfield. This could lead to an output loss of over 300,000 barrels per day. Traditionally, supply disruptions have only a short –term effect on crude oil prices, but this coupled with the OPEC+ deal could at least help Brent to remain afloat for the time being.
Meanwhile, the US shale activity remains a downside risk for the market, as well as doubts surrounding the deal between the OPEC exporters and their allies. As such, we don’t see a high probability of prices rising back to-wards the $70 barrier. However, the overall market picture looks better now. In the short term, Brent needs to firmly get back above $62 to avoid profit-taking.