After what felt like a lifetime of zero-to-near-zero interest rates, the fixed income markets are finally back on the radar screen offering yields that, albeit still not covering current inflation levels, are nonetheless a relatively reasonable return given the risk-reward trade-off vs equities. Short-term TBills such as 3mth, 6mth, 9mth and 1yr bills all in the 4+% range are certainly better than the zero % that idle cash was earning for the past many years.
TradeWeb (TW) ought to be a beneficiary of the increased activity in the bond space. Recent earnings show impressive growth in volumes and earnings. And with the concerns over equities growing in the face of rising recession risks, fears of over-valuations relative to earnings that will likely face pressures due to rising wage and employment costs and growing geopolitical risks, activity in the bond market ought to stay robust in coming quarters.
TW traded down close to 50% from the start of the year until the October 2022 low and has since creeped its way off the lows with the 20dma crossing up thru the 50dma and RSI not currently close to overbought.
With yearend activity often the victim of lighter volumes and, in turn, more volatility, plus the usual suspects of 'black swan' events not too far off center-stage on the radar screen (such as Russia/Ukraine war, EU oil price cap and sanctions, Middle East tensions between Iran and its surrogates and others, China's lockdown, etc), activity in the fixed income space will not lack for reasons to see ongoing volumes of activity.
I currently have no position in TW and find myself considering initiating a 'trade' that might just merit a longer-term hold as an 'investment'. Much will depend on the overall equity market and the corresponding activity in bonds.
Eager to hear thoughts from others. Anyone????
(NOTE: THIS IS NOT ADVICE IN ANYWAY!!! JUST FOOD FOR THOUGHT AND DISCUSSION!!)
TradeWeb (TW) ought to be a beneficiary of the increased activity in the bond space. Recent earnings show impressive growth in volumes and earnings. And with the concerns over equities growing in the face of rising recession risks, fears of over-valuations relative to earnings that will likely face pressures due to rising wage and employment costs and growing geopolitical risks, activity in the bond market ought to stay robust in coming quarters.
TW traded down close to 50% from the start of the year until the October 2022 low and has since creeped its way off the lows with the 20dma crossing up thru the 50dma and RSI not currently close to overbought.
With yearend activity often the victim of lighter volumes and, in turn, more volatility, plus the usual suspects of 'black swan' events not too far off center-stage on the radar screen (such as Russia/Ukraine war, EU oil price cap and sanctions, Middle East tensions between Iran and its surrogates and others, China's lockdown, etc), activity in the fixed income space will not lack for reasons to see ongoing volumes of activity.
I currently have no position in TW and find myself considering initiating a 'trade' that might just merit a longer-term hold as an 'investment'. Much will depend on the overall equity market and the corresponding activity in bonds.
Eager to hear thoughts from others. Anyone????
(NOTE: THIS IS NOT ADVICE IN ANYWAY!!! JUST FOOD FOR THOUGHT AND DISCUSSION!!)
Trade active:
First target reached....TW currently brushing up close against resistance at the 100dma and a key Fib 23% retrace.
I still like the underlying fundamental story and think TW could power through towards the 200dma...BUT, with RSI signaling 'overbought', one has to consider whether to ride it from here or take profits and look to re-enter on (if) pullbacks.
(Again, please note this is NOT advice....simply food for thought and discussion)
I still like the underlying fundamental story and think TW could power through towards the 200dma...BUT, with RSI signaling 'overbought', one has to consider whether to ride it from here or take profits and look to re-enter on (if) pullbacks.
(Again, please note this is NOT advice....simply food for thought and discussion)