Description
TSLA Began the formation of this Symmetrical Triangle after achieving an ATH @ 1243.49.
The Symmetrical Triangle is a common congestion pattern, typically indicative of continuations, accompanied by descending volume (on chart) and a heavy volume on the breakout.
My point of contention with this pattern is okay volume on the breakout. It is only slightly above average when calculated on a 60 day period, or slightly below on a 30 day period.
Although there is generally no advance indication of breakout direction, an indication can be what other stocks are doing - making bearish breaks through major trendlines and support levels since FEB - MAR of this year.
The resulting price move implied by the pattern is equal to price move that preceded the pattern.
So depending on where the measurement starts, the breakout, once confirmed, implies a 330 point minimum to a 680 point maximum move to the downside.
Intermediate price targets: 900, 775 and throwbacks to the triangle's apex are common @ ~1100.
Long Put
Levels on Chart
SL is a daily close back in the triangle
PT : 900
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/23 900P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The price target is the support at 900, which is above the break-even at expiration, so the primary objective of the position is to capitalize on a quick downward move in TSLA stock price and profit on the increase in time value premium.
For those who didn't short @ 1200:
An ATM, further dated Long Put would serve the objective of the position better if it is within your risk tolerance.
Or an ATM synthetic short if you have the ability to sell naked options.
And without the ability to short effectively or sell naked options, an ITM put would serve best, if within your risk tolerance.
If you want me to build these positions, just ask.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
TSLA Began the formation of this Symmetrical Triangle after achieving an ATH @ 1243.49.
The Symmetrical Triangle is a common congestion pattern, typically indicative of continuations, accompanied by descending volume (on chart) and a heavy volume on the breakout.
My point of contention with this pattern is okay volume on the breakout. It is only slightly above average when calculated on a 60 day period, or slightly below on a 30 day period.
Although there is generally no advance indication of breakout direction, an indication can be what other stocks are doing - making bearish breaks through major trendlines and support levels since FEB - MAR of this year.
The resulting price move implied by the pattern is equal to price move that preceded the pattern.
So depending on where the measurement starts, the breakout, once confirmed, implies a 330 point minimum to a 680 point maximum move to the downside.
Intermediate price targets: 900, 775 and throwbacks to the triangle's apex are common @ ~1100.
- My intermediate price targets are above the pattern-implied price targets due to the expiration of the position.
Long Put
Levels on Chart
SL is a daily close back in the triangle
PT : 900
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/23 900P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The price target is the support at 900, which is above the break-even at expiration, so the primary objective of the position is to capitalize on a quick downward move in TSLA stock price and profit on the increase in time value premium.
For those who didn't short @ 1200:
An ATM, further dated Long Put would serve the objective of the position better if it is within your risk tolerance.
Or an ATM synthetic short if you have the ability to sell naked options.
And without the ability to short effectively or sell naked options, an ITM put would serve best, if within your risk tolerance.
If you want me to build these positions, just ask.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
Trade active:
Filled @ 34.1.
Trade active:
Today was a definitive close below the lower trendline in the symmetrical triangle, right at the 3% margin.
For those with the Descending Right-Angle Triangle view, TSLA made a strong showing to retrace a ~6% move back above the lower boundary.
My SL for today was 1045.
My SL for tomorrow is 1047.
For those with the Descending Right-Angle Triangle view, TSLA made a strong showing to retrace a ~6% move back above the lower boundary.
My SL for today was 1045.
My SL for tomorrow is 1047.
Trade active:
SL was triggered today, I missed it though.
I am still active, looking to exit and take the loss.
I am still active, looking to exit and take the loss.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Filled @ 11, -68%.
Watching Descending Triangle now,
break and close below 1000 for short
break and close above descending triangle for long
Watching Descending Triangle now,
break and close below 1000 for short
break and close above descending triangle for long
Trade active:
For those of you into it: time.com/person-of-t...year-2021-elon-musk/
The Magazine Cover Bias is an anecdotal, contrarian indicator that foretold the beginning of AMZN's bear market in 99 after Jeff Bezos appeared as "Person of the Year" for Time Magazine.
Funny enough, TSLA also triggered my entry today.
Triggered w/ daily close below 1k.
SL : >1k
Re-entered w/ 12/31 850Cs @ 12.6.
The Magazine Cover Bias is an anecdotal, contrarian indicator that foretold the beginning of AMZN's bear market in 99 after Jeff Bezos appeared as "Person of the Year" for Time Magazine.
Funny enough, TSLA also triggered my entry today.
Triggered w/ daily close below 1k.
SL : >1k
Re-entered w/ 12/31 850Cs @ 12.6.
Trade closed manually:
Got even today before the FOMC, liquidated most shorts.
Filled @ 18.65, +48%.
This was filled at 1:24pm
Filled @ 18.65, +48%.
This was filled at 1:24pm
My bets are off, but if they were on, they would not be long.