The path to the crypto top for 2024
As I've been writing on my analyses for crypto for the past year, I've thought that we were in a bear market bounce and that we'll still have a new low in crypto in 2024. Now that the bounce has largely played out, I think we're nearing a top for the year. I'm not bearish long term, I'm just anticipating that we only have a few more weeks of an uptrend before crypto starts to finish its bear market and starts its new bull trend.
Why do I think this?
1. If you look at this chart that I created near the top in 2021, you'll see that the lowest price target still hasn't been hit but every other level has been respected well. Usually for a bear trend to complete, price needs to make it below the 8/1 gann fan level and I'd expect it to hit my final target of $9,781.
2. Same with this chart that shows the same targets.
3. Now you may be asking why that level is so important to be hit? It's because that's the level that price broke out from in the last bull market and it still hasn't been retested in the downtrend. Typically the breakout level of a prior bull market needs to be hit prior to the next bull run so that the chart finds balance again.
As you can see from the chart, I think we have a few more weeks of running in alts. That's what I'm focused on now. The gains in BTC are minimal from here, with price to potentially go up to $48k. But alts over the next 3 weeks can still see 100%+ gains. Mostly it'll be small caps that haven't really had their time to shine yet.
I'll be starting to fully exit to cash towards the end of January. As I think Feb/March could be quite ugly.
TBD on when we bottom, but I do think it'll be sometime in 2024 when we tag the bottom box.
Let's see how it all plays out.
Why do I think this?
1. If you look at this chart that I created near the top in 2021, you'll see that the lowest price target still hasn't been hit but every other level has been respected well. Usually for a bear trend to complete, price needs to make it below the 8/1 gann fan level and I'd expect it to hit my final target of $9,781.
2. Same with this chart that shows the same targets.
3. Now you may be asking why that level is so important to be hit? It's because that's the level that price broke out from in the last bull market and it still hasn't been retested in the downtrend. Typically the breakout level of a prior bull market needs to be hit prior to the next bull run so that the chart finds balance again.
As you can see from the chart, I think we have a few more weeks of running in alts. That's what I'm focused on now. The gains in BTC are minimal from here, with price to potentially go up to $48k. But alts over the next 3 weeks can still see 100%+ gains. Mostly it'll be small caps that haven't really had their time to shine yet.
I'll be starting to fully exit to cash towards the end of January. As I think Feb/March could be quite ugly.
TBD on when we bottom, but I do think it'll be sometime in 2024 when we tag the bottom box.
Let's see how it all plays out.
Comment:
Green on the pivot. Send it higher.
Comment:
Timing was off, but still think we hit the top of the range by mid Feb. Let's see.
Comment:
First resistance tagged.