A good idea that turned into a big Bubble(Scam)..!
Bitcoin as the first cryptocurrency supposed to be something near "Ideal Money" as defined by John Nash, however, the primary idea derailed far behind imagination!
How many cryptocurrency projects exist?
10397, yes there are more than 10 thousand cryptocurrencies out there..! and they are far from ideal money..!
It is also good to know this number quadrupled in less than 2 years and it was 2180 before the COVID pandemic!
Bubble:
"A bubble occurs when the price of a financial asset or commodity rises to levels well above historical norms, above its actual value, or both."
(Investopedia)
The shoeshine boy indicator:
"I am pretty much sure many of those who read this article do not know about the story of Joe Kennedy, JFK's father during the Wall Street crash of 1929, and the decisions he took after a discussion with his shoeshine boy.
The story took place in 1929: Joseph Patrick "Joe" Kennedy, Sr. JFK's father, claimed that he knew it was time to get out of the stock market when he got investment tips from a shoeshine boy. At that moment Joe Kennedy had the intuition that we were at the end of the bull market and subsequently, he decided to short the market and became .. multi-millionaire!
Ever since, the shoeshine boy has been the metaphor for "time to get out"; for the end of the mania phase in which everyone, even the shoeshine boy, wants in." (4investor.eu)
however, this time the behavioral alarm did not trigger by Shoeshine boys, but by YouTubers, Celebrities, and..etc.
From Kardashians to Mike Tyson, and others like Mat Demon, DJ Khaled... and so many others..!
But the real alarming sign was the 2022 Super Bowl ads bought by big crypto trading platforms..! which clearly shows they are desperate to add new clients.
I believe 99.9% of cryptocurrencies will lose more than 99% of their value in the coming years! and less than 10 should survive the game!
those with features near to ideal money..!
But what about trading these "Speculative Assets"?
What is Speculation?
In the world of finance, speculation, or speculative trading, refers to the act of conducting a financial transaction that has a substantial risk of losing value but also holds the expectation of a significant gain or other major value. With speculation, the risk of loss is more than offset by the possibility of a substantial gain or another recompense. (Investopedia)
According to my statistical measures, since November 2021:
All the bearish indicators outweigh bullish ones!
Be careful, the Crypto market experiences 15-30% bounces very easily..! at least 10 times since November 2021, no need to say it will be followed by a bigger down move..!
Cryptocurrency history:
"On October 31, 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto published the white paper called Bitcoin – A Peer to Peer Electronic Cash System, describing the functionality of the Bitcoin blockchain network. Satoshi formally began work on the bitcoin project on August 18th, 2008, when they purchased Bitcoin.org." (Crypto Vantage)
Before the Bitcoin era:
"The idea for cryptocurrency first began in the late 1980s, the idea was for a currency that could be sent untraceable and in a manner that did not require centralized entities (i.e. Banks). In 1995, American cryptographer David Chaum implemented an anonymous cryptographic electronic money called Digicash. It was an early form of cryptographic electronic payments which required user software to withdraw from a bank and required specific encrypted keys before they could be sent to a recipient."(Crypto Vantage)
"Bit Gold, often called a direct precursor to Bitcoin, was designed in 1998 by Nick Szabo. It required a participant to dedicate computer power to solving cryptographic puzzles, and those who solved the puzzle received the reward. If you put Chaum’s and Szabo’s concepts together, then you have something that resembles Bitcoin."(Crypto Vantage)
"But Szabo could not solve the puzzle of the double-spending problem (digital data can be copied and pasted) without the use of a central authority, and so it was not until a decade later when a mysterious person or persons, using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, published a white paper called Bitcoin."(Crypto Vantage)
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
How many cryptocurrency projects exist?
10397, yes there are more than 10 thousand cryptocurrencies out there..! and they are far from ideal money..!
It is also good to know this number quadrupled in less than 2 years and it was 2180 before the COVID pandemic!
Bubble:
"A bubble occurs when the price of a financial asset or commodity rises to levels well above historical norms, above its actual value, or both."
(Investopedia)
The shoeshine boy indicator:
"I am pretty much sure many of those who read this article do not know about the story of Joe Kennedy, JFK's father during the Wall Street crash of 1929, and the decisions he took after a discussion with his shoeshine boy.
The story took place in 1929: Joseph Patrick "Joe" Kennedy, Sr. JFK's father, claimed that he knew it was time to get out of the stock market when he got investment tips from a shoeshine boy. At that moment Joe Kennedy had the intuition that we were at the end of the bull market and subsequently, he decided to short the market and became .. multi-millionaire!
Ever since, the shoeshine boy has been the metaphor for "time to get out"; for the end of the mania phase in which everyone, even the shoeshine boy, wants in." (4investor.eu)
however, this time the behavioral alarm did not trigger by Shoeshine boys, but by YouTubers, Celebrities, and..etc.
From Kardashians to Mike Tyson, and others like Mat Demon, DJ Khaled... and so many others..!
But the real alarming sign was the 2022 Super Bowl ads bought by big crypto trading platforms..! which clearly shows they are desperate to add new clients.
I believe 99.9% of cryptocurrencies will lose more than 99% of their value in the coming years! and less than 10 should survive the game!
those with features near to ideal money..!
But what about trading these "Speculative Assets"?
What is Speculation?
In the world of finance, speculation, or speculative trading, refers to the act of conducting a financial transaction that has a substantial risk of losing value but also holds the expectation of a significant gain or other major value. With speculation, the risk of loss is more than offset by the possibility of a substantial gain or another recompense. (Investopedia)
According to my statistical measures, since November 2021:
All the bearish indicators outweigh bullish ones!
Be careful, the Crypto market experiences 15-30% bounces very easily..! at least 10 times since November 2021, no need to say it will be followed by a bigger down move..!
Cryptocurrency history:
"On October 31, 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto published the white paper called Bitcoin – A Peer to Peer Electronic Cash System, describing the functionality of the Bitcoin blockchain network. Satoshi formally began work on the bitcoin project on August 18th, 2008, when they purchased Bitcoin.org." (Crypto Vantage)
Before the Bitcoin era:
"The idea for cryptocurrency first began in the late 1980s, the idea was for a currency that could be sent untraceable and in a manner that did not require centralized entities (i.e. Banks). In 1995, American cryptographer David Chaum implemented an anonymous cryptographic electronic money called Digicash. It was an early form of cryptographic electronic payments which required user software to withdraw from a bank and required specific encrypted keys before they could be sent to a recipient."(Crypto Vantage)
"Bit Gold, often called a direct precursor to Bitcoin, was designed in 1998 by Nick Szabo. It required a participant to dedicate computer power to solving cryptographic puzzles, and those who solved the puzzle received the reward. If you put Chaum’s and Szabo’s concepts together, then you have something that resembles Bitcoin."(Crypto Vantage)
"But Szabo could not solve the puzzle of the double-spending problem (digital data can be copied and pasted) without the use of a central authority, and so it was not until a decade later when a mysterious person or persons, using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, published a white paper called Bitcoin."(Crypto Vantage)
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
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November 26 :
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December 5th:
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January 5th:
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January 21:
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Feb21:
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March 20 (long Idea that hit the target):
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April 17:
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5 Short ideas for ETH and 1 Long Since November 2021 that achieved their targets
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5 days ago I published these for short-term traders!