TBT is a buy rate cuts likely are stalled LONG
TBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a
regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must
navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand
with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of inflation in the
US. Inflation has been sticky and forcing the fed's ambitions to cut rate to be paused. The
Middle East escalation may make matters worse overall. Federal spending ( aid to Israel for
instance) is also a driver of inflation. The budget fight in DC is front and center. I see this
as good cause, to continue to take adds to my TBT position whenever I can find a dip worth
the discount as a further hedge against a correction in the equities markets which could come
on the horizon. Granted a dip of 2-3% from the ATHs is not much but when it hits 10% or more
and the VIX/UXXY continue to rise, there will be impetus in a hurry to hedge positions or close
them with more urgency. For for TBT, I believe that more is better.
regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must
navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand
with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of inflation in the
US. Inflation has been sticky and forcing the fed's ambitions to cut rate to be paused. The
Middle East escalation may make matters worse overall. Federal spending ( aid to Israel for
instance) is also a driver of inflation. The budget fight in DC is front and center. I see this
as good cause, to continue to take adds to my TBT position whenever I can find a dip worth
the discount as a further hedge against a correction in the equities markets which could come
on the horizon. Granted a dip of 2-3% from the ATHs is not much but when it hits 10% or more
and the VIX/UXXY continue to rise, there will be impetus in a hurry to hedge positions or close
them with more urgency. For for TBT, I believe that more is better.
Trade active:
This chart shows TBT in green/red HA candles and SPY in a purple line with the Y axis
is percentage gain. The YTD comparison is shown.
is percentage gain. The YTD comparison is shown.
Comment:
While TBT has has more volatility and SPY more steady price action, it is painfully obvious that on average over the 100 days of 2024, TBT has been on top.
Comment:
TBT shown here on a daily and 12 month duration chart- price has crossed over both the long term POC line ( highest volume at the horizontal over the entire year) and the one year back anchored VWAP. These are both signs of bullish momentum for volume and volatility based traders such as those who are based at big banks and hedge funds as well as the computers, algos and programmers that make up their trading infrastructure. ( AKA " smart money") Seemingly, following smart money is a decent strategy (IMO)
Trade active:
Price moved higher. New position's stop loss raised above brake-even for a risk-free trading moving higher.
Comment: