Blood on the White Collar
US10Y is at support. With an expected terminal rate of 5.25%, the US10Y will not fall below the neutral rate (3.0%-3.5%). The fed has messaged that the September meeting was them getting to neutral (3.25) and the November meeting as entering restrictive territory (4.0). I see a higher upside risk than downside for bond yields. VIX is at 19 and SKEW,VVIX are depressed...
Rotating out of GDX into here. Lets see. It may be a bit early for this trade but, the market is more or less rallying on the fed's "new policy" of a slower pace of rate hikes. The fed raised 75bp the last 4 meetings to get to a neutral/slightly restrictive level (4%). Now that each subsequent rate cut is tightening the economy, demand will fall due to lower amounts of liquidity. The fed did 4, 75b hikes in a row! A 50bp hike when rates are already at 4% is gonna tighten the economy MORE than two 75bp hikes at 1%. Every hike above the neutral rate tightens conditions more than rate hikes at below neutral to neutral levels. When markets come to understand this....this trade will be valid. Maybe we see a "santa clause rally" and markets go up into the new year? Stops and targets listed
Comment:
HONESTLY, I think it is too early for this trade........ holding off on this until January the impending bullish seasonality winds make it too early for this trade. I will bee bullish on XLY (Consumer Discretionary) into the year end. Sell SQQQ by end of trading week 12/09 for profit (likely) and go long XLY into the new year. From XLY come back into SQQQ....
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Pretty much if you are short the market, I think it'd be wise to close them out in at least 2 weeks. Wait for the bullish counter rally to end and then come back short when you hear news of the economy really struggling with tighter financial conditions and high restrictive rates.
Comment:
Inflation Data for November comes out Dec 13th. I will be more or less playing the short till then
Comment:
We are already up 10% on this trade.....
Trade closed manually:
Trade should be closed by now. We arent trading around a fomc meeting
Trade active:
FOMC signaled no rate cuts in 2023...$44 entry $64 target
Trade closed: target reached:
close enough to the first target...took profit today letting the rest ride....