This market has been quite a tough one to figure out. As I have stated numerous times, it's become a game of chance. The markets have proven to completely ignore the horrible economic data, missed earnings, geopolitical crisis, QT, and so on.
At this rate the stock market I believe is owned by just a small number of people and so I suspect we will see less and less significant moves in the market like we did in March 2020 and January 2021. Retail investors are nothing more than a drop in the water.
This chart is based on the slowing inflation. We could see more downward pressure due to persistent inflation and rate hikes from the Fed, but from the looks of it, the QT will give way to QE once again and markets will clearly love that because it was QE that caused the 14-year bull market since QE was introduced in 2008. Without QE, markets are dead. Need proof? Google "S&P vs Fed Balance Sheet" you'll see that on the same week as QE was announced in 2020, was the same week markets started artificially rising and setting new all time high records during a PANDEMIC. Again, logical? No. Manipulation? Absolutely.
I said it before and I'll say it again, once the Fed enacts QE again, it'll be the last time the do it. The economy and markets may like QE, but with it will bring a currency crisis as foreign holders will simply lose trust in the dollar. Almost every BRICS nation has dropped the dollar. Saudi is moving towards pricing oil in other currencies and the USD will be lights out. I believe we will see a currency crisis within 2-years. DXY will fall, inflation will rise once again because of new debt from QE and it'll be hell on earth for wall street and main street.
You read it here. Check back, let's see what happens. In the short term, I expect some selling towards the mid line, and worse case is the bottom of the trendline. If we break through that bottom yellow, than it's gone. We could see markets just go to new all time highs because a 14-year bull market wasn't enough? The thing is, people have no idea whether to get in or stay out because we're just shy of ATH of the Dow. Who knows.... roll the dice and guess.
At this rate the stock market I believe is owned by just a small number of people and so I suspect we will see less and less significant moves in the market like we did in March 2020 and January 2021. Retail investors are nothing more than a drop in the water.
This chart is based on the slowing inflation. We could see more downward pressure due to persistent inflation and rate hikes from the Fed, but from the looks of it, the QT will give way to QE once again and markets will clearly love that because it was QE that caused the 14-year bull market since QE was introduced in 2008. Without QE, markets are dead. Need proof? Google "S&P vs Fed Balance Sheet" you'll see that on the same week as QE was announced in 2020, was the same week markets started artificially rising and setting new all time high records during a PANDEMIC. Again, logical? No. Manipulation? Absolutely.
I said it before and I'll say it again, once the Fed enacts QE again, it'll be the last time the do it. The economy and markets may like QE, but with it will bring a currency crisis as foreign holders will simply lose trust in the dollar. Almost every BRICS nation has dropped the dollar. Saudi is moving towards pricing oil in other currencies and the USD will be lights out. I believe we will see a currency crisis within 2-years. DXY will fall, inflation will rise once again because of new debt from QE and it'll be hell on earth for wall street and main street.
You read it here. Check back, let's see what happens. In the short term, I expect some selling towards the mid line, and worse case is the bottom of the trendline. If we break through that bottom yellow, than it's gone. We could see markets just go to new all time highs because a 14-year bull market wasn't enough? The thing is, people have no idea whether to get in or stay out because we're just shy of ATH of the Dow. Who knows.... roll the dice and guess.
Comment:
This chart is based on nothing realistic as no data really supports another wave up but, since this market is completely disconnected from reality, I wanted to post it because who knows, it may magically rise again, especially if the Fed restarts QE and slashes rates.
Comment:
We're heading towards the mid part of this channel. The news that broke about the 3 banks in trouble may break this prediction by falling below. Trouble seems to be brewing and all eyes are basically on Central Bank's response. Will they pivot? Will they hike slower? Let's see what happens next week. Not a great start to this week, although we saw inflation cool a tad, the rest of the economic data is sluggish or worse than expected.
Trade closed: target reached:
Nice bounce off the red trend line (March 2023, and again Oct 2023). The bubble will keep going until it can't. The higher we go, the weaker the market gets.
