Stock Market Analysis - $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIX - 4/13/2020
Every few days I make it a habit to post my thought of the market conditions and my thought process as a swing trader. The point of this analysis is when I am analyzing my performance, I can look back to see what I was thinking and what kind of improvements should be made to my analysis. So far it has been extremely beneficial to write down my thought and publishing it on Tradingview forces me to care about the quality of each post. I highly recommend it even thought you may not be confident about your own analysis skills. Posting your thought is mostly for you as a journal - you could also make it a private post.
This past short trading week we had a very bullish continuation in this bounce. We managed to trend higher with a bullish short and intermediate term trend. Looking at SPY on the 65m chart, we are in a clear uptrend with a rising 5DMA and 20DMA. Both these moving averages indicate the direction of the short term and intermediate term trend respectively. We are still below a falling 50DMA therefore the overall longer trend is still bearish and I expect this area to become a level of resistance in the future. Last week I called out 260s as a level to watch and we clearly broke above and held this important resistance. I ended up going long ZS, DOCU, and AHPI last week due to this continuation move. Although the action is clearly bullish, I would be wary about how much further this can go. Right now, we are in a very extended bounce therefore although I am overall long, I am still taking smaller bites that usual in case this trend runs out of juice abruptly.
QQQ is currently hitting the all important 200DMA here. Like SPY, QQQ has been in a pretty extended bounce and I would not be surprised if QQQ starts to come back down from here.
Picture has improved on the weakest index IWM. IWM is currently up 29.5% off the lows, an already impressive bounce. Next important resistance to watch is 125s.
VIX continues to downtrend in a clear down sloping channel. This is continued action from last week.
Overall, long side trades should be taken but I would be careful chasing into this extended bounce. We are still long term bearish therefore start with small bites. I would want to see some kind of intermediate term pullback before we breakout again for some bullish action. Furthermore, the past few up days have been on relatively low volume. Bottoms are always marked by multiple high volume followthrough days which we have not seem much of yet.
This past short trading week we had a very bullish continuation in this bounce. We managed to trend higher with a bullish short and intermediate term trend. Looking at SPY on the 65m chart, we are in a clear uptrend with a rising 5DMA and 20DMA. Both these moving averages indicate the direction of the short term and intermediate term trend respectively. We are still below a falling 50DMA therefore the overall longer trend is still bearish and I expect this area to become a level of resistance in the future. Last week I called out 260s as a level to watch and we clearly broke above and held this important resistance. I ended up going long ZS, DOCU, and AHPI last week due to this continuation move. Although the action is clearly bullish, I would be wary about how much further this can go. Right now, we are in a very extended bounce therefore although I am overall long, I am still taking smaller bites that usual in case this trend runs out of juice abruptly.
Overall, long side trades should be taken but I would be careful chasing into this extended bounce. We are still long term bearish therefore start with small bites. I would want to see some kind of intermediate term pullback before we breakout again for some bullish action. Furthermore, the past few up days have been on relatively low volume. Bottoms are always marked by multiple high volume followthrough days which we have not seem much of yet.