Last week’s newsletter, we leaned bearish and the market made lower lows 4 out of the 4 trading sessions. With more fed speakers this week, PCE and Consumer Confidence data releases, and political turmoil in Russia, uncertainty can cause volatility in the market bringing down equities.
Technical Analysis:
SPY
is still due for a retest of the bull flag and daily channel breakout around 429.57. Should this area not hold, a .618 retrace would suggest we pullback to the gap below at 424-423. I do think we revisit that, and possibly test the daily fair value gap below 419.
Bulls will want price action to stay above the weekly 432.03 level. If this holds, we can target the gap above at 437.45-438.97.
Bears will want to try and and break below the red uptrend trendline. If we cannot hold 432.03, we can target the previous bull flag breakout at 429.61. If that doesn’t hold, we could target the 50% retracement where we bullflagged in the beginning of the month around 426.70. An even deeper target is the the daily gap below at 423.95-422.92. Should this gap fill, I would flip long.
Upside Targets: 436.00 → 437.45→ 438.97 → 441.21 → 443.90
Downside Targets: 432.03 → 429.61 → 428.78 → 426.70 → 425.14
Technical Analysis:
SPY
is still due for a retest of the bull flag and daily channel breakout around 429.57. Should this area not hold, a .618 retrace would suggest we pullback to the gap below at 424-423. I do think we revisit that, and possibly test the daily fair value gap below 419. Bulls will want price action to stay above the weekly 432.03 level. If this holds, we can target the gap above at 437.45-438.97.
Bears will want to try and and break below the red uptrend trendline. If we cannot hold 432.03, we can target the previous bull flag breakout at 429.61. If that doesn’t hold, we could target the 50% retracement where we bullflagged in the beginning of the month around 426.70. An even deeper target is the the daily gap below at 423.95-422.92. Should this gap fill, I would flip long.
Upside Targets: 436.00 → 437.45→ 438.97 → 441.21 → 443.90
Downside Targets: 432.03 → 429.61 → 428.78 → 426.70 → 425.14
