S&P still bullish but first warning signs

The last week kicked off with bears challenging the previous week's low (505), coming close to success. Bulls stepped in, mounting a strong defense and steering prices back to a historical high. It might have been a convincing victory if only they could have sustained it until Friday's closure, but that didn't materialize. Friday concluded on a bearish note, closing even below the previous week's end (512,85). This signal alone isn't enough to confirm a trend reversal thesis but from now we should now keep a closer eye out for any emerging bearish signs.

The outlook for the next week is mildly bullish. Long term Buyers should refrain from increasing position and maybe consider (partial) profit taking. Day traders can explore opportunities on both sides within the range of the previous week with some preference to LONGs

Stay alert for potential volatility on Tuesday as PMI data is scheduled for release.

Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.

Comment:

Yesterday (Tuesday) Bulls retested previous week high and held it firmly into day closure. With daily higher low being set buyers are very well positioned to sustain the rally. Their immediate objective is to clear previous week high (518) and build value above it.

Comment:

Bulls have not reached their objective today. They've tried but found no support from large buyers. Sellers stepped in and dropped price below morning pullback. This is bearish and combined with concerns mentioned earlier this week, it's more and more worrisome for buyers.

Yet, I remain cautiously optimistic for the bulls tomorrow. Daily lows remain untouched, and bears haven't even breached Tuesday afternoon's pullback. The release of Retail Sales data could provide buyers with support they need.

Comment:

Thursday unfolded with notable developments. Initially, prices surged during pre-market, surpassing Wednesday's high, setting up an opportune moment for bulls to challenge the previous week's high. However, contrary to expectations, there was a lack of bullish activity. Instead, the release of Retail Sales data prompted a strong bearish reaction, leading to a break below Wednesday's low and technically establishing a daily lower high. This formation resembles a double top on the daily chart, signaling a bearish reversal. Bulls are now reliant on defending this week's low at 508.5. If bears breach this level, it confirms a daily downtrend.

P.S. one subtle thing that speaks in favor of bulls is that yesterday bearish price action was not as strong as it could be. Bears were able to breach Wednesday's low but if we check value zone it has not moved down that much, staying mostly within Tuesday's value range