TF: D
Background:
The US Stock market has had a bumpy, wild ride over the last several years fueled by low interest rates, global issues, and most recently global high inflation.
The COVID-19 pandemic initially led to a market sell-off in 2020 followed by a large impulse wave to the upside as a result of "stimulus" checks and very low interest rates that began in 2020 and ended in 2022 with the commencement of the Fed raising rates to combat high inflation.
Beginning in January 2022 the US Stock Market dropped ~27 percent, with the low of ~$348 being hit in October 2022. Since October 2022, the US Markets have experience upside momentum with the a local current top of ~$461 being hit in July 2023. Since July 2023 the markets have experienced a downside move.
This analysis uses the pandemic market sell-off low (March 2020) and impulse high (January 2022), October 2023 low, July 2023 high to forecast the longer-term forecast for the US Markets. Fixed range volume profile is used on the March 2020 low to the January 2022 high and is used on the recent leg higher (October 2022 low to the July 2023 high) to give better insight on volume and areas of interest that may act like a magnet for price. For clarity the forecast text below is added to the chart.
SHORT-TERM TARGET (2 to 3 months):
Short-term target for price is down to ~$387. This aligns with the general of the 61.8% retracement from the $348.20 to $461.01 move (Oct 22' to July 23'). Also in this area is a high volume node that make act as magnet for price to retrace to.
LONG-TERM (Several Months to a few years):
If price makes it to this previous low (Oct 22' low) and breaks it, there is a high probability chance that price would extend down to the 161.8% ($265.91; green line) extension of the previous leg down that started in Jan 22' and continued to Oct 22'.
If price makes a double bottom around $348.77 or bounces and continue higher at ~387 then there could a chance for a rally from there...could be impulsive or only corrective. If corrective price would look to break that low (Oct. 22', $348.77).
Catalyst for deep correction - Global issue/event/war, sticky inflation causing more rate increases, holding rates at higher levels for longer than anticipated.
Background:
The US Stock market has had a bumpy, wild ride over the last several years fueled by low interest rates, global issues, and most recently global high inflation.
The COVID-19 pandemic initially led to a market sell-off in 2020 followed by a large impulse wave to the upside as a result of "stimulus" checks and very low interest rates that began in 2020 and ended in 2022 with the commencement of the Fed raising rates to combat high inflation.
Beginning in January 2022 the US Stock Market dropped ~27 percent, with the low of ~$348 being hit in October 2022. Since October 2022, the US Markets have experience upside momentum with the a local current top of ~$461 being hit in July 2023. Since July 2023 the markets have experienced a downside move.
This analysis uses the pandemic market sell-off low (March 2020) and impulse high (January 2022), October 2023 low, July 2023 high to forecast the longer-term forecast for the US Markets. Fixed range volume profile is used on the March 2020 low to the January 2022 high and is used on the recent leg higher (October 2022 low to the July 2023 high) to give better insight on volume and areas of interest that may act like a magnet for price. For clarity the forecast text below is added to the chart.
SHORT-TERM TARGET (2 to 3 months):
Short-term target for price is down to ~$387. This aligns with the general of the 61.8% retracement from the $348.20 to $461.01 move (Oct 22' to July 23'). Also in this area is a high volume node that make act as magnet for price to retrace to.
LONG-TERM (Several Months to a few years):
If price makes it to this previous low (Oct 22' low) and breaks it, there is a high probability chance that price would extend down to the 161.8% ($265.91; green line) extension of the previous leg down that started in Jan 22' and continued to Oct 22'.
If price makes a double bottom around $348.77 or bounces and continue higher at ~387 then there could a chance for a rally from there...could be impulsive or only corrective. If corrective price would look to break that low (Oct. 22', $348.77).
Catalyst for deep correction - Global issue/event/war, sticky inflation causing more rate increases, holding rates at higher levels for longer than anticipated.