The weekly close today was straight up horrendous. We've got a channel break, retest and fail and confirmed this week. We've got a bearish engulfing candle. We've got bad news from NVDA, TSLA, Banks, FED etc. So, shorting right here is kind of a no brainer; right?
Well, let's take a deeper look. On RSI, everytime there is a double touch on the lower end of bollinger bands, albeit during the last macro downtrend, there was a significant bounce. And both times there was a lower low. This time market is on a macro uptrend (yeah still it is, even though it is in an intermediate downtrend), and this week is still a higher low. The total regression hasn't been even to .618 level yet. There is a macro cup and handle still in works until price regresses more than 50%.
So is it time to load up on shorts or buy a whole bunch $300 puts? I am afraid, I won't be doing that. What I am intending to do is to wait for a bounce. $426 should be the failure point if market really wants to dump down to Oct 2022 lows. There are massive supports down below, so I don't expect market to do a nose dive as many are predicting. I will watch what happens next week and if we do get a bounce and a failure at $426, I will buy some downside options. For now, I am out on the sidelines.
Well, let's take a deeper look. On RSI, everytime there is a double touch on the lower end of bollinger bands, albeit during the last macro downtrend, there was a significant bounce. And both times there was a lower low. This time market is on a macro uptrend (yeah still it is, even though it is in an intermediate downtrend), and this week is still a higher low. The total regression hasn't been even to .618 level yet. There is a macro cup and handle still in works until price regresses more than 50%.
So is it time to load up on shorts or buy a whole bunch $300 puts? I am afraid, I won't be doing that. What I am intending to do is to wait for a bounce. $426 should be the failure point if market really wants to dump down to Oct 2022 lows. There are massive supports down below, so I don't expect market to do a nose dive as many are predicting. I will watch what happens next week and if we do get a bounce and a failure at $426, I will buy some downside options. For now, I am out on the sidelines.
