Or How I Learned to Stop Shorting and Love the Fed.
This channel will be the range the SPY travels within for May, until a breakout on either side. A breakdown would likely mean consolidation, but NOT a bearish signal unless carried by momentum, which seems gone now that the Fed is buying ETFs. There are plenty of support levels to keep the SPY sideways rather than down.
On the other hand, a break upwards out of the channel would represent a breakout back to last year levels. I doubt this will happen. At some point the trend must end, and will have to consolidate, whether that means going sideways for a bit or consolidating to the major levels. Personally, I doubt we can revisit the 220 lows unless wave 2 turns out to be a worse disaster than wave 1.
Major Levels: 286, 280, 272, 264.
Support: 246, 220
Resistance: 295, 313
"But Jorji! Where are your candles! I thought we were supposed to be trading stocks!"
I turned them off because I wanted a clearer picture of the trend, try it for yourself.
Please feel free to comment/discuss/critique my charts in the comment section. Always happy to collaborate.
tl;dr SPY 300 6/19
This channel will be the range the SPY travels within for May, until a breakout on either side. A breakdown would likely mean consolidation, but NOT a bearish signal unless carried by momentum, which seems gone now that the Fed is buying ETFs. There are plenty of support levels to keep the SPY sideways rather than down.
On the other hand, a break upwards out of the channel would represent a breakout back to last year levels. I doubt this will happen. At some point the trend must end, and will have to consolidate, whether that means going sideways for a bit or consolidating to the major levels. Personally, I doubt we can revisit the 220 lows unless wave 2 turns out to be a worse disaster than wave 1.
Major Levels: 286, 280, 272, 264.
Support: 246, 220
Resistance: 295, 313
"But Jorji! Where are your candles! I thought we were supposed to be trading stocks!"
I turned them off because I wanted a clearer picture of the trend, try it for yourself.
Please feel free to comment/discuss/critique my charts in the comment section. Always happy to collaborate.
tl;dr SPY 300 6/19
Trade closed: target reached:
hit a double top, and now exited the channel. under the 286 weak support. Watch for a test of that 286 level as a resistance. On Wednesday, if the price bounces down off the 286 resistance, thats a bearish signal. If the price retraces above 286, stay neutral.
(as always, not advisement.)
(as always, not advisement.)
Comment:
SPY is firmly out of the channel and is testing the 280 support. If it breaks down below this support, that would be a great entry into a short.
Comment:
Full Disclosure, i bought a put when we broke at 286 and sold at 272. :D