S&P500 Critical do-or-die test of the 4H MA200-1DMA50 Resistance

The S&P500 index just made an important move today, by closing (even marginally) a 4H candle above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), for the first time since January 13 (practically the start of the correction).

So far it appears that it is following the fractal pattern I suggested at the start of the month with high precision:


As you see, the only barriers left based on this comparison are the Lower Highs trend-line since the All Time High (ATH) and the 1D MA50 (which on today's analysis is illustrated in red). Technically we can say that the ultimate Resistance Zone is the area within the 4H MA200 and the 1D MA50. A candle close above it, should push the index towards the 0.618 Fibonacci (4545) and the February Resistance (4595), which had two rejections on February 02 and 09. Similarly a break above that zone should set in motion a full recovery towards the ATH.

On the other hand, if the price gets rejected within the 4H MA200 - 1D MA50 Resistance Zone, it should pull-back initially to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). A break/ close below that trend-line targets the 4140 - 4107 Support Zone made of the two recent lows. The scenario of a break even below those lows, has SPX going for the Lower Lows trend-line and then (after possibly a re-test of the 4H MA50 as Resistance) the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. But I will make an update in such case.





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