SPX Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst’s Cyclic Analysis
Overview:
Let’s review the key points of the previous update (November 11th):
Update:
This week, we got an invalidation of our idea. As a result, I am doing a major change to both my count and cyclic analysis.
Analysis of the Structure:
It is not easy to analyze this structure. The count that we were following since September 16th is still valid (with a little bit of change: blue wave x is a big flat correction), but I see that count unlikely at this point and making it my alternative count.
Now, what is my primary count? It is very similar to the count that I had before making the change on September 16th. I see that we have completed waves 1,2,3, and 4 so far and we are in wave 5 at the moment.
Honestly, this is not an ideal count (still very valid): wave 3 is pretty short, wave 4 is excessively deep, but the structure of the last leg up (since October 27th) is the reason I favour it.
Looking into the hourly chart, I see that we are in wave IV of a of 5, developing as a flat (completing on Monday and my target for the bottom is 4473.18). My target for wave a peak is 4686.36.
Analysis of the Cycles:
I am also making a major change to my cycles. The trough of October 27th is now a 40W trough in my opinion (if not an 18M cycle trough, but that’s for later to decide).
Now, what are the cycle FLDs showing us and what are the important dates:
1) 40D FLD target would be 4532.
2) 40D cycle trough expected on last week of November.
3) 80D cycle trough expected on last 2 weeks of December.
4) 80D FLD generated a target of 4452, which is already met.
5) 20W trough is expected on the first week of March.
6) 20W FLD suggests an important peak on December 17th.
7) 20W FLD has generated a target of 4682.
8) 40W FLD suggests an important peak on February 13th.
9) 40W trough is expected April to May 2024.
10) 40W FLD has generated a target of 4932.
Let’s review the key points of the previous update (November 11th):
- Started wave (c) of y of 2.
- First 20D trough of the current 80D cycle on Monday.
- 40D cycle trough November 30th or December 1st.
- 20W cycle trough last week of December 2023.
Update:
This week, we got an invalidation of our idea. As a result, I am doing a major change to both my count and cyclic analysis.
Analysis of the Structure:
It is not easy to analyze this structure. The count that we were following since September 16th is still valid (with a little bit of change: blue wave x is a big flat correction), but I see that count unlikely at this point and making it my alternative count.
Now, what is my primary count? It is very similar to the count that I had before making the change on September 16th. I see that we have completed waves 1,2,3, and 4 so far and we are in wave 5 at the moment.
Honestly, this is not an ideal count (still very valid): wave 3 is pretty short, wave 4 is excessively deep, but the structure of the last leg up (since October 27th) is the reason I favour it.
Looking into the hourly chart, I see that we are in wave IV of a of 5, developing as a flat (completing on Monday and my target for the bottom is 4473.18). My target for wave a peak is 4686.36.
Analysis of the Cycles:
I am also making a major change to my cycles. The trough of October 27th is now a 40W trough in my opinion (if not an 18M cycle trough, but that’s for later to decide).
Now, what are the cycle FLDs showing us and what are the important dates:
1) 40D FLD target would be 4532.
2) 40D cycle trough expected on last week of November.
3) 80D cycle trough expected on last 2 weeks of December.
4) 80D FLD generated a target of 4452, which is already met.
5) 20W trough is expected on the first week of March.
6) 20W FLD suggests an important peak on December 17th.
7) 20W FLD has generated a target of 4682.
8) 40W FLD suggests an important peak on February 13th.
9) 40W trough is expected April to May 2024.
10) 40W FLD has generated a target of 4932.
