SPX Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst’s Cyclic Analysis
Review:
Let's review the highlights of the previous update (November 18th 2023):
Update:
Analysis of the Structure:
I think we are in the final stages of wave a of 5. More specifically, we are in wave IV of a developed as a flat, which will lead to a leg higher to complete wave a of 5.
Analysis of the Cycles:
We got the the 40D cycle trough of the first 80D cycle trough of the current 20W cycle on November 29th. On Friday January 5th, we got the first 80D cycle trough in this 20W cycle.
Now, we are starting the second 80D cycle.
The 40D downside FLD cross that we had recently suggests we may have a bit lower to go before starting wave (V) of a, but I see that scenario being unlikely. If we consider January 5th as the 80D cycle trough, its been a 69-day cycle, a perfect nominal 80D cycle.
The general roadmap is we will go higher until around Feb 2nd, then we start a correction till March 11th (20W cycle trough, also wave b of 5).
Let's review the highlights of the previous update (November 18th 2023):
- We have completed waves 1,2,3, and 4 so far and we are in wave 5 at the moment.
- The trough of October 27th is now a 40W trough.
- 40D FLD target: 4532.
- 40D cycle trough on last week of November.
- 80D cycle trough expected on last 2 weeks of December.
- 20W trough on the first week of March.
- 20W FLD target: 4682.
- 40W trough expected April to May 2024.
- 40W FLD target: 4932.
Update:
Analysis of the Structure:
I think we are in the final stages of wave a of 5. More specifically, we are in wave IV of a developed as a flat, which will lead to a leg higher to complete wave a of 5.
Analysis of the Cycles:
We got the the 40D cycle trough of the first 80D cycle trough of the current 20W cycle on November 29th. On Friday January 5th, we got the first 80D cycle trough in this 20W cycle.
Now, we are starting the second 80D cycle.
The 40D downside FLD cross that we had recently suggests we may have a bit lower to go before starting wave (V) of a, but I see that scenario being unlikely. If we consider January 5th as the 80D cycle trough, its been a 69-day cycle, a perfect nominal 80D cycle.
The general roadmap is we will go higher until around Feb 2nd, then we start a correction till March 11th (20W cycle trough, also wave b of 5).
