Not even 2 years have passed since the end of the previous crisis, as a new one arrived. The average waiting time for a new global crisis is 8-10 years, i.e. the crisis should have been expected in 2028-2030. But the United States of America will face a new global crisis much earlier - in 2023.
2020 stock market crash
The last Stock market crash in 2020 was flooded with a huge amount of money emission, the highest in history in terms of rates of changes. I guess the current situation will be different. The USA will learn lessons from the previous crisis, drag out the current crisis in time to provide an opportunity for inefficient companies to go bankrupt, in order to clean up the economy, and only then flood the economy with money.
Yield curve Inversion and timing
Yield curve inversion is a prerequisite for a crisis, it is a fundamental indicator with a 100% probability of working out. But the event itself does not mean that the crisis will come tomorrow. The crisis can come within 1 year. Other methods are used to determine the exact date of the peak installation by index. In the previous idea, a bullish indicator of bearish sentiment was published. Bearish sentiment - to buy. And also the S&P 500 Stocks above 50-day average ( S5FI ) is below 10%, which also indicates an expected rebound. In past crises, the market made new all-time highs after a yield curve inversion and only then fell. And in this situation it is possible to expect such behavior.
Outcome
Buying and holding an index or stock after an inverted yield curve is prohibited.
To sell short S&P 500, additional tools are needed, because, after an Yield curve Inversion, the index may set a new all-time high. Which is most likely to happen.
PS. Who read to the end, please put + in the comments
2020 stock market crash
The last Stock market crash in 2020 was flooded with a huge amount of money emission, the highest in history in terms of rates of changes. I guess the current situation will be different. The USA will learn lessons from the previous crisis, drag out the current crisis in time to provide an opportunity for inefficient companies to go bankrupt, in order to clean up the economy, and only then flood the economy with money.
Yield curve Inversion and timing
Yield curve inversion is a prerequisite for a crisis, it is a fundamental indicator with a 100% probability of working out. But the event itself does not mean that the crisis will come tomorrow. The crisis can come within 1 year. Other methods are used to determine the exact date of the peak installation by index. In the previous idea, a bullish indicator of bearish sentiment was published. Bearish sentiment - to buy. And also the S&P 500 Stocks above 50-day average ( S5FI ) is below 10%, which also indicates an expected rebound. In past crises, the market made new all-time highs after a yield curve inversion and only then fell. And in this situation it is possible to expect such behavior.
Outcome
Buying and holding an index or stock after an inverted yield curve is prohibited.
To sell short S&P 500, additional tools are needed, because, after an Yield curve Inversion, the index may set a new all-time high. Which is most likely to happen.
PS. Who read to the end, please put + in the comments