S&P 500: Last chance for bears to get back in control

Based upon the bearish channel I drew in March 2018, the market has now reached the decision point for a strong melt-up much higher or another strong leg downwards.

The market is strongly in favor of the bulls as of yesterday's close, therefore the risk is VERY high for shorting here despite the momentum starting to decline on long-term indicators like the TRIX as shown on the chart.


Short entry: ideally 2768, else 2762
Target: open intraday gaps way below 2700, around 2692
Stop loss: 2770


Here is my old bearish chart from March 14:

Trade active:

Short order got filled today more than hour before the close at 2768.
I'm going to use 2789.5 as stop loss for this short.

Risk reward from 2768 back down to 2725 would be exactly 2
Risk reward from 2768 back down to 2712 would be 2.60
Risk reward from 2768 back down to 2692 would be 3.53

Trade closed manually:

Today's high was 2779.90. I closed yesterday's short from 2768 in profit today. Today's low was 2760.16.

Originally I wanted to add a second much higher short today right after the open around 2776-2778, but then I got greedy and expected the market to go above 2782 before a decline would start, but then the market plunged lower right away.

Trade active:

I have opened a new short at 2772 in the last hour of today's trading session. With a tigher top loss at 2786.

Trade closed manually:

I closed my short from yesterday from 2772 today below 2770. Because I had changed my mind after looking at more charts that Friday could be more bullish than I had expected yesterday.

Comment:

Today's low so far was 2763.59 and I have said in my last update I closed my short in profit already.

I did this because bulls could try to retest yesterday's high at 2779.90 and they might also try to go towards the recent S&P 500 e-mini futures high at 2783.50.

Comment:

There is a risk that Monday opens with a gap up before bears could attack again, that's why I won't try with another short until Monday.

Today on Friday the high so far was 2777.68 and therefore I have been right with my last outlook that bulls are going to try to get beyond 2780.

Comment:

Monday June 11 actually opened with a gap up, as I had predicted on June 8.

Now for June 12 there is a better chance to go short after the Trump-Kim Summit is over.

Trade active:

I went short at 2786. Should have gone short at the open above 2787, but I wanted to see more price action first.


Short entry: 2786
Stop loss: 2809
Target: 2737

Risk/Reward ratio: 2.13

Comment:

The Nasdaq 100 is about to break out higher, this would lead the S&P 500 much higher. I'm going to close my short if the Nasdaq makes yet another new intra-day high today. Because nothing is working out as expected today so far.


Nasdaq 100

S&P 500

Trade closed manually:

The Nasdaq broke out. I closed my short at 2786 (almost break even).


Nasdaq 100, breakout

S&P 500