Watch closely on SPX 4381, IF 4381 BREAKS, the market will retest the previous low around 4325-4330. From the day chart, the pattern seems very similar to M top pattern. what is that mean? It means once SPX breaks 4325-4330 "shoulder" support, it will have an equivalent drop as the "head" to "shoulder", where is likely to see SPX around 4195 area.
What is the performance of QQQ in the second half of the year after the huge increase in the first half of the history? What is the most similar current background for Treasury yields?
In 1987, it rose 33.8 percent in the first half and fell 17.4 percent in the second.
In 1995, it rose 33.1% in the first half of the year and 7.1% in the second half of the year.
In 1998, it rose 35% in the first half and 37.3% in the second half. Treasury yields fell sharply in 1995 and the second half of 1998.
Treasury yields soared in the summer of 1987.
Treasury yields have surged over the past week, most notably, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield breaking through the 4% mark on Thursday, breaking out of an apparent downtrend line and surpassing its early March high. And it has also formed a technical cup-and-handle breakout, a theoretical increase, which will rise to around 4.5%, meaning that the market believes that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer, and cut rates less aggressively in the next few years than before. Meanwhile, the two-year Treasury note - the best indicator of where the Fed expects interest rates to go - broke above 5%, just below its March high before the bank failure highlighted by Silicon Valley Bank, as well as its previous peak. (In 1987's summer, the Dow Jones Index DIA suddenly fell 22% in a single day, and this is where the circuit breaker came from)