It’s probably worth starting with the fact that I don’t think that everything will fall right down and there are no interesting ideas. I just think given the fed continuing to be hawkish and recession most likely going to happen, the prices will continue to fall. But the fall of the stock market most likely will not be too big. In the worst case, S&P 500 will fall to 3000, then by the middle of the year it will recover to 3500 and then sideways movement until 2024. I would definitely not count that it's going above 4000-4200 this year. Everything can change only if we break 4200 and consolidate higher. But this is an unlikely scenario under current conditions. Interest rates are unlikely to continue to rise much further, but they will remain high throughout 2023.
But in the case of the crypto, I expect another strong fall of 40-50% and only then a slow recovery to current levels by mid 2024. In March, there will be a "Shanghai" update, which will unlock about 16 million ETH. I'm sure that many holders will want to sell some part to take profits in anticipation of a global recession. I also think there will be another wave of bankruptcies ahead and many crypto assets will be sold directly on the market. So, at least this year, I don't see an prospects for the growth of the crypto.
What to buy and what to stay away from? I would buy small cap companies, which are currently valued very cheaply, Banks and Asset Management companies (BlackRock, JPM, Berkshire Hathaway), Uranium ETF (URA) and companies related to copper (FreePort-McMoRan, Southern Copper). Maybe something from the consumer sector, but only if the price will be at least 15% lower (PepsiCo, P&G, JNJ).
Now let's move on to things that I definitely wouldn't buy, but rather even sell: All big tech except Microsoft (buy under $200), Semiconductors (NVDA, AMD, TXN, AMAT), Crypto and crypto related stocks, all oil companies (debatable, but in my opinion, after such growth in 2022, there is nothing to catch there).
But in the case of the crypto, I expect another strong fall of 40-50% and only then a slow recovery to current levels by mid 2024. In March, there will be a "Shanghai" update, which will unlock about 16 million ETH. I'm sure that many holders will want to sell some part to take profits in anticipation of a global recession. I also think there will be another wave of bankruptcies ahead and many crypto assets will be sold directly on the market. So, at least this year, I don't see an prospects for the growth of the crypto.
What to buy and what to stay away from? I would buy small cap companies, which are currently valued very cheaply, Banks and Asset Management companies (BlackRock, JPM, Berkshire Hathaway), Uranium ETF (URA) and companies related to copper (FreePort-McMoRan, Southern Copper). Maybe something from the consumer sector, but only if the price will be at least 15% lower (PepsiCo, P&G, JNJ).
Now let's move on to things that I definitely wouldn't buy, but rather even sell: All big tech except Microsoft (buy under $200), Semiconductors (NVDA, AMD, TXN, AMAT), Crypto and crypto related stocks, all oil companies (debatable, but in my opinion, after such growth in 2022, there is nothing to catch there).
Comment:
We are as close as possible under the downtrend, which we are unlikely to be able to break through in the next couple of months. So if you want to short Crypto/NASDAQ then now is the time.
Comment:
Despite the fact that we broke the downtrend, we are very likely to return back under it very soon. Powell literally said "forget the stock market going up this year". So I keep holding all my shorts until I see a rate cut. Don't fight the Fed.
