I recently shared my long term view of Bitcoin using the 4 year halving cycle chart. It helps to look at major assets from this angle for holding long term.
After putting this chart of the S&P 500 together I was again fascinated with the very measured and controlled price action and consistent rise in index value over the past century. It speaks volumes for the buy and hold strategy for a portion of anyone's investment portfolio (as long as your buying low when fear is prevalent).
Technically, all doomsday, FUD and prognosticator noise aside we appear to be firmly in a wave 5 of a huge wave 1 that began during the post civil war period. Wave 3 as we know is the most powerful of any uptrend and looks to have started at the end of 1932-33 when the great depression was still technically ongoing (markets tend to begin uptrends when economic conditions reach their worst).
Some 68 years later concurrent with the massive Nasdaq run wave 3 topped in 1999-2000.Wave 4 printed a very nice A,B,C corrective pattern through the tech wreck and 9/11 ending with the housing/banking financial crash that bottomed in 2009. That started the current wave 5 that looks to be currently headed for 5294 likely by end of 2022 or sooner.
Notable: the Covid 19 crash is a blip on this chart completing a nice hammer formation in 2020 setting up for extended gains to finish wave 5.
If indeed we stall out at the 5294 area a major wave 2 could begin. That indeed may take the markets to extreme lows.The lower trend line hasn't been touched since 1974 (before that 1949--is it due?). While the highs and lows of wave 4 provide support levels the "everything bubble" collapse or global reset could be a deep correction.I will be watching 5294 and taking "a lot" off the table when we arrive there.
Lastly, not to be too long winded, I was also curious to see RSI overbought/oversold readings through this long period. Using the vertical red dotted lines you can see periods of extreme overbought conditions that lasted years...'54-'69 then '84-'01 and currently since 2013. The market has never been oversold on this timeframe.
Please post feedback and comments on if you agree/disagree with this outlook. Thanks and good trading!
After putting this chart of the S&P 500 together I was again fascinated with the very measured and controlled price action and consistent rise in index value over the past century. It speaks volumes for the buy and hold strategy for a portion of anyone's investment portfolio (as long as your buying low when fear is prevalent).
Technically, all doomsday, FUD and prognosticator noise aside we appear to be firmly in a wave 5 of a huge wave 1 that began during the post civil war period. Wave 3 as we know is the most powerful of any uptrend and looks to have started at the end of 1932-33 when the great depression was still technically ongoing (markets tend to begin uptrends when economic conditions reach their worst).
Some 68 years later concurrent with the massive Nasdaq run wave 3 topped in 1999-2000.Wave 4 printed a very nice A,B,C corrective pattern through the tech wreck and 9/11 ending with the housing/banking financial crash that bottomed in 2009. That started the current wave 5 that looks to be currently headed for 5294 likely by end of 2022 or sooner.
Notable: the Covid 19 crash is a blip on this chart completing a nice hammer formation in 2020 setting up for extended gains to finish wave 5.
If indeed we stall out at the 5294 area a major wave 2 could begin. That indeed may take the markets to extreme lows.The lower trend line hasn't been touched since 1974 (before that 1949--is it due?). While the highs and lows of wave 4 provide support levels the "everything bubble" collapse or global reset could be a deep correction.I will be watching 5294 and taking "a lot" off the table when we arrive there.
Lastly, not to be too long winded, I was also curious to see RSI overbought/oversold readings through this long period. Using the vertical red dotted lines you can see periods of extreme overbought conditions that lasted years...'54-'69 then '84-'01 and currently since 2013. The market has never been oversold on this timeframe.
Please post feedback and comments on if you agree/disagree with this outlook. Thanks and good trading!