Good morning! Batteries are recharged for this week, as we have a very important day on Wednesday. THE FED SPEAKS. Not gonna lie, but Friday's action caught me off guard. As I watched the action, I still wasn't convinced. It still had the feeling of a hope rally. Now look, we can still push to about 3970ish to complete the ABC correction before rolling over. And did you see the VIX? JUst got crushed all the way back to 26 maybe even 25 at one point. Still too many mixed signals in the market with the DOW up almost 15% for the month, the NASDAQ showing more of a Bearish Chart set up and the S&P looking like it's ready to follow the DOW.
So is this rally going to hold tech up? It's looking that way, but the FED can change all of that come Wednesday. 3900 is a key area of resistance so I wouldn't be surprised if we got some sideways movement the next two days before we see any real price action. Tomorrow might be interesting for the JOLTS Report. Why? Well the FED said in their last announcement that they wanted this number to come in lower. Forecast is somewhere around 9.5 million. So if tomorrow we see this number come in lower. Say, 9 million, it could be off to the races and continue higher. But at the end of the day, everyone is still going to want to hear from the FED. Will they admit the economy is slowing? I'm sure they will and the market is going to like that they acknowledge it. But is it enough?
Remember that you get three moves on FED Days. You'll have the initial move, the retracement, then you'll see the direction of the market. So my plan is to just wait for Wednesday to determine if I should go bullish or stay bearish. I still think there are too many uncertainties and the FED will continue its efforts to bring inflation down even more. Either way, it doesn't matter. I need to trade the markets in front of me. Happy trading!
So is this rally going to hold tech up? It's looking that way, but the FED can change all of that come Wednesday. 3900 is a key area of resistance so I wouldn't be surprised if we got some sideways movement the next two days before we see any real price action. Tomorrow might be interesting for the JOLTS Report. Why? Well the FED said in their last announcement that they wanted this number to come in lower. Forecast is somewhere around 9.5 million. So if tomorrow we see this number come in lower. Say, 9 million, it could be off to the races and continue higher. But at the end of the day, everyone is still going to want to hear from the FED. Will they admit the economy is slowing? I'm sure they will and the market is going to like that they acknowledge it. But is it enough?
Remember that you get three moves on FED Days. You'll have the initial move, the retracement, then you'll see the direction of the market. So my plan is to just wait for Wednesday to determine if I should go bullish or stay bearish. I still think there are too many uncertainties and the FED will continue its efforts to bring inflation down even more. Either way, it doesn't matter. I need to trade the markets in front of me. Happy trading!