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Morning Notes 07/09/19-Gary
Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Bearish (There is a pattern target pointing towards the 2800-2625 area-let's watch and see if it plays out)
Hi Everyone,
Futures are down some this morning, but approaching some support. From Wednesday's report: A new decline is due to begin. Let’s see what Reality may provide in the next two days. There is a negative episode due into at least XX/XXish. A specific negative indicant is also due 7/9ish. Here we are and now we need to see the bears push price through some of the important support levels to confirm a short term top. For the /es, I think a push below 2955 will cause a little uneasiness for some bulls that have been hypnotized to buy every dip-and they have been correct. How do they react if they are wrong? A push below 2955 should cause a reaction trade down to the 2936 and then 2916, which is where the bulls stepped in during the last pull back. If that is lost, then I think we could see some panic selling-which sounds weird, being we are still in the 2900 area on the /es.
The SPX looks like it may open right at the 50-dma on the hourly chart (2964) and if that is lost, then I 2943 to come into play in a fast manner. Below that support, a reaction trade down to 2915 should be on deck. Again, that is where the bulls stepped during the last pullback and if lost, should cause some panic selling. Yes, panic selling near the highs happen when we see non-stop gap higher opens, which forces traders to jump in. It doesn't take a lot to trap bulls with this gap up environment and why I have been saying, rallies like this are built on a foundation made of quick sand. And with that said, we still need confirmation that a top is in place. When it is, then we can look for reaction targets and panic selling.
Today range for the spx 2979 high and 2964 low. A break of 2979 the SPX should try for the spx should try for 2985/2994. A push below 2964 we could see 2952/2943. G-
SPX CASH 60 minute technicals
Stochastics: Overbought
Divergences- Bearish Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2979 R2-2985 R3 2994
Support Levels: S1-2964 S2-2952 S3 2943
Trending Pivots: Lower
Can The Stock Market Be Predicted? Below are a series of predictions we made from September. Take a look and you will see, yes they can and nobody does it better than Woody Dorsey!
February 14, 2019:
Nominal tactical weakness has been due into 2/22. Now, to reiterate, “nominal tactical weakness” is not a “Sell” signal. It is just the timing profile. Again, as noted: “The Interim profile is still Bullish .” The December Low was excessive, and the rebound is becoming excessive too. If a corrective range is forming, another or, several 2-3 day declines may occur over the next two weeks. Now, the next nominal trading high is due near 4/10ish. That does not mean stocks are just going higher from here to there by any means. It makes the most tactical sense for stocks to correct or to become congested for a while. • Near Term Diagnosis: Sentiment is 83% Bullish today following a relatively rare 97% bullish yesterday. These are clearly cautionary. • Interim Term Diagnosis: The Interim Trend still allows for recovery rallies, by fits and starts, into at least early April or perhaps even into June.
10/16/18 Sentiment Timing Report: MARKET TIMING: A tactical trading low was ideally due last week and came in on 10/11 synchronous with the 0% Bullish . This week is messy with an upside bias due next week. Given the expansion of the range, it may all amount to not very much: “I still foresee a notable relief rally in November. That may be followed by more weakness than anyone expects into year end.” The code is for a nominal Recovery near 10/26 and, post-Election, engineer a decent upside episode into Thanksgiving followed by perhaps surprisingly robust downside in December. These codes may morph and become more, or less defined, so be aware of that. These are tricky times and “loco” maneuvers can occur.
09/13/18 Sentiment Timing Report: MARKET TIMING: A failure was expected in August. The expected correction is profiled to last into near 9/25ish but, “This Fall may see trading opportunities both ways.” How the market behaves into 9/25ish there will tell us all a great deal about the larger context. So far from the 8/29 High, there were 7 days down which have been followed by 5 days up. While it feels like the market is strong it really has been in a sideways price/time pattern. What fits best now is for another 6-8 day decline which would make it a somewhat symmetrical compound correction into the preferred low date. Under that pattern, today would be the last upside day.
Morning Notes 07/09/19-Gary
Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Bearish (There is a pattern target pointing towards the 2800-2625 area-let's watch and see if it plays out)
Hi Everyone,
Futures are down some this morning, but approaching some support. From Wednesday's report: A new decline is due to begin. Let’s see what Reality may provide in the next two days. There is a negative episode due into at least XX/XXish. A specific negative indicant is also due 7/9ish. Here we are and now we need to see the bears push price through some of the important support levels to confirm a short term top. For the /es, I think a push below 2955 will cause a little uneasiness for some bulls that have been hypnotized to buy every dip-and they have been correct. How do they react if they are wrong? A push below 2955 should cause a reaction trade down to the 2936 and then 2916, which is where the bulls stepped in during the last pull back. If that is lost, then I think we could see some panic selling-which sounds weird, being we are still in the 2900 area on the /es.
The SPX looks like it may open right at the 50-dma on the hourly chart (2964) and if that is lost, then I 2943 to come into play in a fast manner. Below that support, a reaction trade down to 2915 should be on deck. Again, that is where the bulls stepped during the last pullback and if lost, should cause some panic selling. Yes, panic selling near the highs happen when we see non-stop gap higher opens, which forces traders to jump in. It doesn't take a lot to trap bulls with this gap up environment and why I have been saying, rallies like this are built on a foundation made of quick sand. And with that said, we still need confirmation that a top is in place. When it is, then we can look for reaction targets and panic selling.
Today range for the spx 2979 high and 2964 low. A break of 2979 the SPX should try for the spx should try for 2985/2994. A push below 2964 we could see 2952/2943. G-
SPX CASH 60 minute technicals
Stochastics: Overbought
Divergences- Bearish Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2979 R2-2985 R3 2994
Support Levels: S1-2964 S2-2952 S3 2943
Trending Pivots: Lower
Can The Stock Market Be Predicted? Below are a series of predictions we made from September. Take a look and you will see, yes they can and nobody does it better than Woody Dorsey!
February 14, 2019:
Nominal tactical weakness has been due into 2/22. Now, to reiterate, “nominal tactical weakness” is not a “Sell” signal. It is just the timing profile. Again, as noted: “The Interim profile is still Bullish .” The December Low was excessive, and the rebound is becoming excessive too. If a corrective range is forming, another or, several 2-3 day declines may occur over the next two weeks. Now, the next nominal trading high is due near 4/10ish. That does not mean stocks are just going higher from here to there by any means. It makes the most tactical sense for stocks to correct or to become congested for a while. • Near Term Diagnosis: Sentiment is 83% Bullish today following a relatively rare 97% bullish yesterday. These are clearly cautionary. • Interim Term Diagnosis: The Interim Trend still allows for recovery rallies, by fits and starts, into at least early April or perhaps even into June.
10/16/18 Sentiment Timing Report: MARKET TIMING: A tactical trading low was ideally due last week and came in on 10/11 synchronous with the 0% Bullish . This week is messy with an upside bias due next week. Given the expansion of the range, it may all amount to not very much: “I still foresee a notable relief rally in November. That may be followed by more weakness than anyone expects into year end.” The code is for a nominal Recovery near 10/26 and, post-Election, engineer a decent upside episode into Thanksgiving followed by perhaps surprisingly robust downside in December. These codes may morph and become more, or less defined, so be aware of that. These are tricky times and “loco” maneuvers can occur.
09/13/18 Sentiment Timing Report: MARKET TIMING: A failure was expected in August. The expected correction is profiled to last into near 9/25ish but, “This Fall may see trading opportunities both ways.” How the market behaves into 9/25ish there will tell us all a great deal about the larger context. So far from the 8/29 High, there were 7 days down which have been followed by 5 days up. While it feels like the market is strong it really has been in a sideways price/time pattern. What fits best now is for another 6-8 day decline which would make it a somewhat symmetrical compound correction into the preferred low date. Under that pattern, today would be the last upside day.
