The S&P spiked on the open this morning to a new 6 month high, the new high also moved the price. From my framing, I'd say there's a 30% chance of a new ATH before we see another strong correction. For the bulls out there, this may sound bad, but I was 90% confident we wouldn't be seeing the S&P reaching a new ATH within the year.
That being said, I don't see a strong upside to this rally. More over, if we bounce for a third time from the lower 2900 range, even with a new ATH, that will be seen as a triple top. Triple tops are in many regards equally as bearish as a head and shoulders formation on long time scales. While my stance on a new ATH within 2019 could be considered 'plausible' as opposed to 'irrational,' I still stand by the position that the market has been gassed and it's gains are running on fumes. Most with their ear to the ground are well aware that the growth we're witnessing is coming purely from corporate buy backs, as public investors have all but dried up.
So regardless of if we see an ATH by the end of May, it will be the last time the S&P gets the opportunity to flirt with the 3,000 range for at least the next 5 years, if permanently. Before you mock me as a doomsayer claiming civilization is going to implode in the next collapse, that's not what I'm implying. Instead, I'm implying the S&P (and all markets) will be revalued in a post USD/Pax Americana economic world. The death of the USD is a mathematical certainty.
No matter how many "good" decisions are made, to prolong the system's death, fundamental market forces will inevitably lead to it's destruction. That destruction will amalgamate in the form of either hyperinflation/deflation as a result of QE or social unrest as a result of the lack of liquidity being made available to the American public, in an ever failing attempt to inflate the markets with said liquidity. There's no avoiding it, it's just the nature of how FIAT systems play out. They consolidate power, power corrupts, corruption incites rebellion, rebellions spark new beginnings.
This is a concept that's terrifying to those with everything to lose, but exhilarating to those with everything to gain. But regardless of which side you fall upon, it's a concept Americans on both sides need to begin embracing, in mass. The longer we wait to do such, the worse the fall out will be. I'm still hopeful that within the next few years, if proper actions are taken by the government, total systemic collapse can be avoided, in exchange for a (mostly) peaceful transition of power/national identity. But let's be real, humans are terrible at paying attention to slow approaching doomsday scenarios. So most likely we'll ignore our fiduciary responsibilities until we wake up one day to locked bank accounts and invoices telling us our place of work is "temporarily" closed. And on that day it will be to late to react in a productive way. Instead we will each become entirely too worried with our own survival to even consider forming a functioning society with others outside out family/clan units. But a guy can dream, as he plans his US escape plan for when shit hits the fan. Maybe America will wise up long enough to elect someone forward thinking enough to redirect America's future through comprehensive economic reform and redefining value. #AndrewYang2020 anyone? haha
That being said, I don't see a strong upside to this rally. More over, if we bounce for a third time from the lower 2900 range, even with a new ATH, that will be seen as a triple top. Triple tops are in many regards equally as bearish as a head and shoulders formation on long time scales. While my stance on a new ATH within 2019 could be considered 'plausible' as opposed to 'irrational,' I still stand by the position that the market has been gassed and it's gains are running on fumes. Most with their ear to the ground are well aware that the growth we're witnessing is coming purely from corporate buy backs, as public investors have all but dried up.
So regardless of if we see an ATH by the end of May, it will be the last time the S&P gets the opportunity to flirt with the 3,000 range for at least the next 5 years, if permanently. Before you mock me as a doomsayer claiming civilization is going to implode in the next collapse, that's not what I'm implying. Instead, I'm implying the S&P (and all markets) will be revalued in a post USD/Pax Americana economic world. The death of the USD is a mathematical certainty.
No matter how many "good" decisions are made, to prolong the system's death, fundamental market forces will inevitably lead to it's destruction. That destruction will amalgamate in the form of either hyperinflation/deflation as a result of QE or social unrest as a result of the lack of liquidity being made available to the American public, in an ever failing attempt to inflate the markets with said liquidity. There's no avoiding it, it's just the nature of how FIAT systems play out. They consolidate power, power corrupts, corruption incites rebellion, rebellions spark new beginnings.
This is a concept that's terrifying to those with everything to lose, but exhilarating to those with everything to gain. But regardless of which side you fall upon, it's a concept Americans on both sides need to begin embracing, in mass. The longer we wait to do such, the worse the fall out will be. I'm still hopeful that within the next few years, if proper actions are taken by the government, total systemic collapse can be avoided, in exchange for a (mostly) peaceful transition of power/national identity. But let's be real, humans are terrible at paying attention to slow approaching doomsday scenarios. So most likely we'll ignore our fiduciary responsibilities until we wake up one day to locked bank accounts and invoices telling us our place of work is "temporarily" closed. And on that day it will be to late to react in a productive way. Instead we will each become entirely too worried with our own survival to even consider forming a functioning society with others outside out family/clan units. But a guy can dream, as he plans his US escape plan for when shit hits the fan. Maybe America will wise up long enough to elect someone forward thinking enough to redirect America's future through comprehensive economic reform and redefining value. #AndrewYang2020 anyone? haha