SP500 30 Year Gameplan Secular Bear Market Range (2055 8600.00)
This is my 30 year gameplan on how I will navigate these markets. I believe we are in a Secular Bear Market for the next 3 decades and will consolidate in this range between 2300-5400 price levels.
The biggest clue is the rising monthly 200sma as that will be the support areas along with the upper channel with its four trendlines. Two thick outside channel lines with two medium inside ones, all spaced evenly apart.
The bottom one not connected to anything will catch people off guard in 2029 when that -50% sell off occurs. That will be prime buying at 2300.00
The market cycles between Secular Bull and Secular Bear Markets mixed in between cyclical bull and bear markets inside each Secular Market. The market needs time to consolidate between each bull run.
Notice the Monthly 21ema where we are now at the top? It is flat and going sideways. That means range, which means sell the highs above it.
Now that SPX hit that magical 5000.00, the carpet will be pulled and a 37% sell off will take place down to the rising monthly 200sma and the upper channel line, AND, the demand zone from 2019.
A massive 110% rally will ensue off that level wiping away that bear market and going to the upper channel line of 5450.00 at the tail end of 2029.
I don't know what the catalyst/news will be that will the driver in the 2029 50% sell off, nor do I care. I go off strictly technicals.
My ultimate belief is that one must be extremely nimble in these markets taking profits and not buy and holding. I will only buy and hold after that 2029 50% sell off at the tail end of 2031 as that will be the ultimate low on its march up to 8600. Each sell off and rally will get erased prior.
I believe this is the plan for the institutions as this is the monthly chart. They must plan out years in advance.
Happy trading and please leave your opinions as I would love to hear others thinking.
The biggest clue is the rising monthly 200sma as that will be the support areas along with the upper channel with its four trendlines. Two thick outside channel lines with two medium inside ones, all spaced evenly apart.
The bottom one not connected to anything will catch people off guard in 2029 when that -50% sell off occurs. That will be prime buying at 2300.00
The market cycles between Secular Bull and Secular Bear Markets mixed in between cyclical bull and bear markets inside each Secular Market. The market needs time to consolidate between each bull run.
Notice the Monthly 21ema where we are now at the top? It is flat and going sideways. That means range, which means sell the highs above it.
Now that SPX hit that magical 5000.00, the carpet will be pulled and a 37% sell off will take place down to the rising monthly 200sma and the upper channel line, AND, the demand zone from 2019.
A massive 110% rally will ensue off that level wiping away that bear market and going to the upper channel line of 5450.00 at the tail end of 2029.
I don't know what the catalyst/news will be that will the driver in the 2029 50% sell off, nor do I care. I go off strictly technicals.
My ultimate belief is that one must be extremely nimble in these markets taking profits and not buy and holding. I will only buy and hold after that 2029 50% sell off at the tail end of 2031 as that will be the ultimate low on its march up to 8600. Each sell off and rally will get erased prior.
I believe this is the plan for the institutions as this is the monthly chart. They must plan out years in advance.
Happy trading and please leave your opinions as I would love to hear others thinking.
Comment:
Looking at the quarterly chart, where each candle is 3 months of trading, you can see an even more birds eye view of the market and the quarterly 200sma at the bottom of the channel
Comment:
Going off the prior Secular Bear Market back in the 50's,60's and 70's, it is following the same blueprint of the rising 3-month 200sma and an up channel
Comment:
Once I see a bearish engulfing bar, possibly March, then that will be the start of this sell off and a downtrend off the declining monthly 21ema into the rising monthly 200sma
Comment:
For those who are unaware, the Monthly 21ema IS the Daily 200sma. They are one and the same.
Comment:
This will be my plan of action on the first sell off. I plan to add all the way down and try my best to hold to the ultimate target of 24,900. I will be using MYM or Micros and the ultimate goal to achieve $70,000 to prepare for the massive rally in 2026. I will be using YM for that rally with the goal of achieving $200,000 on that one.
Comment:
Using 1969 as my blueprint
