BLUF: No Short Term here...just Long Term/Environment/Sectors & Pivots..Stand bye...Fookin Bust it!
*Use Pull-Backs as Buy Entries*
eresearch.fidelity.c...tors_in_market.jhtml
NOTES:
-Please keep in mind, as you review technicals and market breadth, that such analysis is extremely fluid and prone to week-over-week volatility. One week breadth and technicals deteriorate and the next they can improve. Technical analysis is largely about following price, while searching for identifiable patterns in order to obtain probabilities going forward. Technicals can be overridden by exogenous events and headlines in much the same way these factors can deepen a trend. Pivot…trend over mean reversion!
SPX Risk Range to EOY: 2750-3250
-What has worked in the last 2 months is balance, game planning, due diligence, patience, remaining open-minded and flexible. Additionally, it has proven prudent and profitable to recognize the signals and participate in what has been a successful rally where it never paid to get overly bearish. Fear is the enemy…What they say is not how they are placing there trade! PROCESS...
Pros
* Unprecedented Fiscal and monetary stimulus.
* Reopening progression.
* Vaccine hopes…Not likely!
* Signs of economic activity bottoming out.
* Expectations for a big earnings rebound in 2021.
Cons
* Tighter lending standards.
* HIGH Long Term Unemployed
* Election Year Shit Show! Trumpmeister narrowly wins but Dems keep the House and Gain the Senate...a Big Nothing Burger!
* Supply and demand questions: Push…Pull! How much elasticity is there? and When does “Velocity” of money pick up?
Closing:
ME…Up until recently it was necessary to control the oceans and associated trade routes. If data is the new oil, then it stands to reason that controlling digital waves will be necessary to those in power.
The people who control the chokepoints through which information flows are the most powerful people in the world.
Question: What is the best medicine in the world? "Fire Superiority"....Do Not give up real estate...always High Ground!
"Market participants, regulators and policy makers all react/anticipate/precipitate price action. A boat can cross a river horizontally even as the current heads downstream. But lacking an independent source of power, downstream she goes."
...at the end of the day Markets do not represent "Information" they represent "Transactions"
Mike Green. Logica
Cheers....See you a Happy Hour, we all have to die of something folks! Cold-Bore Head Shots ONLY!!!
*Use Pull-Backs as Buy Entries*
eresearch.fidelity.c...tors_in_market.jhtml
NOTES:
-Please keep in mind, as you review technicals and market breadth, that such analysis is extremely fluid and prone to week-over-week volatility. One week breadth and technicals deteriorate and the next they can improve. Technical analysis is largely about following price, while searching for identifiable patterns in order to obtain probabilities going forward. Technicals can be overridden by exogenous events and headlines in much the same way these factors can deepen a trend. Pivot…trend over mean reversion!
SPX Risk Range to EOY: 2750-3250
-What has worked in the last 2 months is balance, game planning, due diligence, patience, remaining open-minded and flexible. Additionally, it has proven prudent and profitable to recognize the signals and participate in what has been a successful rally where it never paid to get overly bearish. Fear is the enemy…What they say is not how they are placing there trade! PROCESS...
Pros
* Unprecedented Fiscal and monetary stimulus.
* Reopening progression.
* Vaccine hopes…Not likely!
* Signs of economic activity bottoming out.
* Expectations for a big earnings rebound in 2021.
Cons
* Tighter lending standards.
* HIGH Long Term Unemployed
* Election Year Shit Show! Trumpmeister narrowly wins but Dems keep the House and Gain the Senate...a Big Nothing Burger!
* Supply and demand questions: Push…Pull! How much elasticity is there? and When does “Velocity” of money pick up?
Closing:
ME…Up until recently it was necessary to control the oceans and associated trade routes. If data is the new oil, then it stands to reason that controlling digital waves will be necessary to those in power.
The people who control the chokepoints through which information flows are the most powerful people in the world.
Question: What is the best medicine in the world? "Fire Superiority"....Do Not give up real estate...always High Ground!
"Market participants, regulators and policy makers all react/anticipate/precipitate price action. A boat can cross a river horizontally even as the current heads downstream. But lacking an independent source of power, downstream she goes."
...at the end of the day Markets do not represent "Information" they represent "Transactions"
Mike Green. Logica
Cheers....See you a Happy Hour, we all have to die of something folks! Cold-Bore Head Shots ONLY!!!
Comment:
and just so we are clear...If you live life to the fullest with NO REGRETS in a meaningful way...Does it matter when you die or of what? No regrets here...HH is approaching!
Comment:
But consider this. What if the recovery is basically priced in? What if we got our v-shaped stock market recovery which pulled recovery style prices into the present and now prices more or less flat line in the future (see figure 1)? What if, unlike a 2009 style “swoosh” market recovery, we just got that recovery much more quickly? In fact, this is what happened in 1919 during the Spanish Flu. Stock markets collapsed 25% then recovered quickly and were dead money for a few years before the Roaring 20’s really took off.
Could the same thing be happening here? I think so. And if I am right then two things can be true:
1. The stock market and bulls have been exactly right. The recovery is coming and the stock market already sees it.
2. AND the stock bears are right that the stock market looks like a fairly unattractive asset class at present because it’s priced many years of future expected cash flows in already. (Cullen Roche)
Could the same thing be happening here? I think so. And if I am right then two things can be true:
1. The stock market and bulls have been exactly right. The recovery is coming and the stock market already sees it.
2. AND the stock bears are right that the stock market looks like a fairly unattractive asset class at present because it’s priced many years of future expected cash flows in already. (Cullen Roche)
Comment:
UNK's:
Election Year Politics
The economic rescue payment has or has not long passed, applications to the small business grant program will end at the end of June, and super-unemployment is set to expire at the end of July.
The gigantic austerity and layoffs from state and local governments will be a further ongoing drag on recovery...TBD!
Nobody knows...let's look at the best odds...Behavior/Sentiment/Politicians! What's the environment? Let's Go...Heads on a Swivel!
Election Year Politics
The economic rescue payment has or has not long passed, applications to the small business grant program will end at the end of June, and super-unemployment is set to expire at the end of July.
The gigantic austerity and layoffs from state and local governments will be a further ongoing drag on recovery...TBD!
Nobody knows...let's look at the best odds...Behavior/Sentiment/Politicians! What's the environment? Let's Go...Heads on a Swivel!
Comment:
Be careful out there....
“The Fed could be faced with a firm "market force” if they don’t lock down the yield-curve on Wednesday... We remain (very) skeptical of a big move higher in long bond yields as YCC is actively being pondered within the Fed ahead of Wednesday...”
“Rising real rates usually precede equity sell-offs or it has at least been the case since 2017. When real rates increase 25-50 bps on the quarter, it should raise a bit of concern for the equity momentum within a month. We are now approaching such territory again...”
www.chartpoint.com/bond-protest/
“The Fed could be faced with a firm "market force” if they don’t lock down the yield-curve on Wednesday... We remain (very) skeptical of a big move higher in long bond yields as YCC is actively being pondered within the Fed ahead of Wednesday...”
“Rising real rates usually precede equity sell-offs or it has at least been the case since 2017. When real rates increase 25-50 bps on the quarter, it should raise a bit of concern for the equity momentum within a month. We are now approaching such territory again...”
www.chartpoint.com/bond-protest/