With the US continuing to increase interest rates and potentially being in a recession, it was surprising to see markets perform so well last week. However, with Powell seemingly inferring a softer stance, the S+P charted a decent rally.
Technically we continue to view the rebound as a bear market rally that has already reached the 50% retracement of the sell off since April at 4136.
So how far is the market likely to correct? This is a tricky one to answer, but I like to look at any convergence of resistance and Fibonacci retracement and the 9-period RSI can give vital clues.
When I look at the S+P I can see the June high at 4177.51, the 61.8% retracement at 4254 and the 200-day ma at 4344. With an RSI already at 71, my feeling is that the market will fail ahead of that 200-day ma!
The Society of Technical Analysts' next course starts in October. Those wishing to learn more about technical analysis can take a look at the Route to Diploma - Society of Technical Analysts, www.technicalanalysts.com/education.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Technically we continue to view the rebound as a bear market rally that has already reached the 50% retracement of the sell off since April at 4136.
So how far is the market likely to correct? This is a tricky one to answer, but I like to look at any convergence of resistance and Fibonacci retracement and the 9-period RSI can give vital clues.
When I look at the S+P I can see the June high at 4177.51, the 61.8% retracement at 4254 and the 200-day ma at 4344. With an RSI already at 71, my feeling is that the market will fail ahead of that 200-day ma!
The Society of Technical Analysts' next course starts in October. Those wishing to learn more about technical analysis can take a look at the Route to Diploma - Society of Technical Analysts, www.technicalanalysts.com/education.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
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