VIX FUTURE EXPIRATION JULY 22: short-term bearish impact on SPX
Credit for this research goes to Nomura's Charlie McElligott - as reported by Zerohedge.com tonight.
Tomorrow (I'm in LA so it is just before midnight here) or today (depending on your timezone and when you see this post) Wednesday, July 22 is VIX Futures expirations day.
Last expirations and next expirations for 2020:
22 January 2020
19 February 2020
18 March 2020
15 April 2020
20 May 2020
17 June 2020
22 July 2020
19 August 2020
16 September 2020
21 October 2020
18 November 2020
16 December 2020
I have taken the liberty of putting an arrow on past SPX trading days which coincided with VIX Futures expirations in 2020 including the next ones on July 22 and August 19 (though we don't obviously know where the index will be on Aug 19).
As can see the short-term impact has been mildly bearish for a few days or extremely bearish.
Notably, the all-time high of Feb 19 was one such VIX Futures expiration day.
If history is any indicator we should expect Wednesday and for a few days after at least - to be bearish for the SPX.
It is also to be noted VIX on a relative basis for 2020 is at low levels and sitting just above support where it sat on June 8th at the previous peak of the SPX (and the bear market rally end for the Dow and Russel 2000). It is primed to explode higher in other words.
Trade accordingly.
Cheers!
Cyrus
Tomorrow (I'm in LA so it is just before midnight here) or today (depending on your timezone and when you see this post) Wednesday, July 22 is VIX Futures expirations day.
Last expirations and next expirations for 2020:
22 January 2020
19 February 2020
18 March 2020
15 April 2020
20 May 2020
17 June 2020
22 July 2020
19 August 2020
16 September 2020
21 October 2020
18 November 2020
16 December 2020
I have taken the liberty of putting an arrow on past SPX trading days which coincided with VIX Futures expirations in 2020 including the next ones on July 22 and August 19 (though we don't obviously know where the index will be on Aug 19).
As can see the short-term impact has been mildly bearish for a few days or extremely bearish.
Notably, the all-time high of Feb 19 was one such VIX Futures expiration day.
If history is any indicator we should expect Wednesday and for a few days after at least - to be bearish for the SPX.
It is also to be noted VIX on a relative basis for 2020 is at low levels and sitting just above support where it sat on June 8th at the previous peak of the SPX (and the bear market rally end for the Dow and Russel 2000). It is primed to explode higher in other words.
Trade accordingly.
Cheers!
Cyrus