The DIA is still the strongest among all three indices, which gave a triangle ascending pattern on the daily chart. If it breaks 343ish trendline resistance with vol, then its uptrend breakup comfirm. However, in the past couple weeks since 2023, DIA found itself as the worst performing exchange traded fund on a year-to-date basis.The past couple months strength in the Dow Industrials has occurred despite renewed weakness in the Dow Transportation index, which is a potential warning sign for the former. When we add in the fact that the Dow Industrials has been unable to hold on to its August highs, this suggests near term weakness.
The QQQ tried to break 300ish resistance level last Friday but failed. Right now, QQQ is touching both the high end of a descending daily trend line and its 200-day moving average.The popular tech-focused Invesco QQQ has had an excellent start to 2023, with a year-to-date gain that has approached 10%. However, at the same time, the investment community has pulled more capital out of QQQ than any other ETF on the market. The tech-focused fund is packed with many high-profile names that are set to deliver earnings in the coming weeks. This includes Apple (
AAPL
), Alphabet (
GOOGL
), Amazon (
AMZN
), NVIDIA (
NVDA
) and Meta Platforms (
META
), among others. Upcoming tech earnings could provide the crucial catalyst to determine the near-term direction for the ETF. Even I am quite bullish on Qs, but still 8&21 EMA needs to catch up in the next couple of days. IF AMD's release on Tuesday sets a positive tone for tech companies, then time correction is most likely to happen for Qs. The most obvious thing while looking at the chart of the S&P 500 is how small this one year decline appears against the backdrop of the previous advance. The chart pattern looks like a high level consolidation after a big advance with everyone becoming bearish. I remain extremely bullish after sentiment readings during the summer matched the highest bearish readings ever measured in 50 years. To me, it calls for a minimum price move of the S&P 500 back to the January 3rd 2022 high of $4,742. That would be a gain of 16% from here. I don't believe this is a bear market rally. Bear market rallies are usually accompanied by a rapid reversal of sentiment back to the bullish side, setting up the condition for another price decline. As you can see from the two indicators, we don't currently have that. In fact, we have the opposite. With so many bears still around, there's not enough sellers left to send prices lower, so prices almost have to rise, even with a moderate amount of buying.
However, from the short term tech side of analysis, 4100ish resistance and extension are the first two problems we need to solve. 4000ish (also 8EMA daily) looks quite solid, It's also somewhere I would like to add more long positions.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.