This is a catalyst. A black swan. A rare event.
While I'm generally someone that is a high risk trader, these are events that cause panic. Logic, reason and technical analysis won't help. We have no idea what happens, but the fear is now real with travel bans and sporting events suspended. This will cause people to raise cash, stop spending and completely halt the global economy.
I doubt that anyone will look at markets eager to buy and reinvest anytime soon. The impact of this event is much more likely to last awhile. And after people mentally get crushed, they are usually not a big hurry to get back into the market and buy it up. After Leman went under (red circle left), it took over 7 months for equities to bottom. While we could potentially bottom any day, it could also take 7 months to several years to find a bottom. And if people are still scared and stop spending, it could lead to high unemployment and debt defaults that cause a vicious cycle.
On Bitcoin:
Bitcoin is not a safe haven. It has never been a safe haven. It has never shown reverse correlation to equities. I know people talk about it like its a store of value, but that was always what people "hoped" it would be. You can't buy real things (food, water, supplies) with BTC so people will sell it to raise rash that they can use to pay bills and buy things. BTC is very much a a pure speculative asset in 2020. This is why all assets are going down. Its a hyperinflationary event.
I'm not trying to be a fear monger, but markets are about emotions and this can be very emotional. Anyone that bought equities the past 10 years is up big right now. Even many olds school bitcoiners are way ahead of the game with BTC bought under $1000. There is plenty of people willing to take profit. So yes, it can keep going. Be careful. Be safe. Let things calm down.
I have sold most assets and won't be trading or investing anytime soon.
While I'm generally someone that is a high risk trader, these are events that cause panic. Logic, reason and technical analysis won't help. We have no idea what happens, but the fear is now real with travel bans and sporting events suspended. This will cause people to raise cash, stop spending and completely halt the global economy.
I doubt that anyone will look at markets eager to buy and reinvest anytime soon. The impact of this event is much more likely to last awhile. And after people mentally get crushed, they are usually not a big hurry to get back into the market and buy it up. After Leman went under (red circle left), it took over 7 months for equities to bottom. While we could potentially bottom any day, it could also take 7 months to several years to find a bottom. And if people are still scared and stop spending, it could lead to high unemployment and debt defaults that cause a vicious cycle.
On Bitcoin:
Bitcoin is not a safe haven. It has never been a safe haven. It has never shown reverse correlation to equities. I know people talk about it like its a store of value, but that was always what people "hoped" it would be. You can't buy real things (food, water, supplies) with BTC so people will sell it to raise rash that they can use to pay bills and buy things. BTC is very much a a pure speculative asset in 2020. This is why all assets are going down. Its a hyperinflationary event.
I'm not trying to be a fear monger, but markets are about emotions and this can be very emotional. Anyone that bought equities the past 10 years is up big right now. Even many olds school bitcoiners are way ahead of the game with BTC bought under $1000. There is plenty of people willing to take profit. So yes, it can keep going. Be careful. Be safe. Let things calm down.
I have sold most assets and won't be trading or investing anytime soon.